1 00:00:09,900 --> 00:00:14,280 In any kind of empirical subject, especially in demography, 2 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:21,630 is very important to know something about the sources of data on which one's making one's pronouncements in demography. 3 00:00:21,630 --> 00:00:26,070 Many of these are secure. Some of them are insecure. 4 00:00:26,070 --> 00:00:30,990 And like in any other aspect of numerical study, is very important to know. 5 00:00:30,990 --> 00:00:40,560 How firm are the foundations of the data on which you're basing your models, your projections, your your your high level theories and all the rest. 6 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:45,930 And this this lecture is really meant to be an introduction to where the demographic data come 7 00:00:45,930 --> 00:00:52,740 from and how they're used and how they've developed over time and what they're collected for. 8 00:00:52,740 --> 00:00:57,540 And one of the basic points, which I got to admit, is that on the whole and generally speaking, 9 00:00:57,540 --> 00:01:04,110 demographers are parasitic on the body politic in the sources of demographic data, 10 00:01:04,110 --> 00:01:10,230 demographic data, all the data that demographers use are not collected primarily for the benefit of demographers. 11 00:01:10,230 --> 00:01:15,450 As you might imagine, they are connected for quite other other reasons and partly for that reason. 12 00:01:15,450 --> 00:01:18,540 Sometimes they are not really very suitable for demographic studies. 13 00:01:18,540 --> 00:01:25,710 One has to tweak them and modify them and just them so that they make sense in demographic terms. 14 00:01:25,710 --> 00:01:30,870 So without further ado, let's let's have a look at what's on offer. 15 00:01:30,870 --> 00:01:38,190 Generally speaking, it's been the business of states to increase their population over time and therefore, 16 00:01:38,190 --> 00:01:44,250 states always taken an interest in what we would call demographic statistics, 17 00:01:44,250 --> 00:01:54,040 not, of course, for demographic gratification of academics, but for their own state concerns, especially in the past. 18 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:56,760 The more people you had, the more power you had. 19 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:05,640 And this this remark from Proverbs sums up the sort of assumption about the merits of large population size, 20 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:11,700 which will be accepted equally by Sennacherib and Starlite. And we will go on to look at that. 21 00:02:11,700 --> 00:02:18,730 That that in while the more detailed. The main purpose of the collection of data, 22 00:02:18,730 --> 00:02:26,500 which we demographers use to for our estimates and our projections and all the rest have been in the earlier time for 23 00:02:26,500 --> 00:02:33,910 purposes of controlling and maximising population and later on for purposes of enhancing the welfare of the population. 24 00:02:33,910 --> 00:02:42,310 And I think it's fair to say the history of the gathering of data, which we call demographic by states, has been an evolution from, as it were, 25 00:02:42,310 --> 00:02:47,860 an earlier a rather harsh authoritarian pattern of collecting data because it's useful for 26 00:02:47,860 --> 00:02:54,940 states and for rulers to know how many people they have they can tax conscripted into the army, 27 00:02:54,940 --> 00:03:00,430 conscripted to forced labour, to build canals and so forth on the one hand, 28 00:03:00,430 --> 00:03:05,920 and that society has evolved and become more liberal and softer and enlightened. 29 00:03:05,920 --> 00:03:13,090 We see the beginnings of concern for the individual welfare started to materialise until now. 30 00:03:13,090 --> 00:03:20,830 For the most part, in most systems of demographic data gathering, it is individual welfare, health, 31 00:03:20,830 --> 00:03:28,480 security of the abolition of poverty, which is the driving force for the collection of data which demographers use. 32 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:37,570 Not so much. The power bases, which previously was, was the case in earlier times. 33 00:03:37,570 --> 00:03:48,040 State security and religious monitoring was quite important to to minimise subversion in Japan. 34 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:52,990 As some of you may know, there was a considerable possibility that in the early 17th century, 35 00:03:52,990 --> 00:03:56,530 Japan might become Catholic as a result of missionary activity. 36 00:03:56,530 --> 00:04:04,240 The Japanese, having seen what happened to the Philippines under Spanish control, which had become Catholic, 37 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:11,350 did not wish this to happen in Japan and that the growing Catholic population was suppressed and its suppression was guaranteed. 38 00:04:11,350 --> 00:04:19,420 Or at least an attempt was made to ensure that people conformed to Shinto practises and not Catholic practises 39 00:04:19,420 --> 00:04:28,930 by obliging births and other unions to be registered in the Shinto shrine and forbade it in Catholic Quansah. 40 00:04:28,930 --> 00:04:33,910 Somewhat similar reasons parish registers in Protestant England were developed 41 00:04:33,910 --> 00:04:40,480 in 1038 in order to ensure the population was having its religious events, 42 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:46,780 which of course was then universally observed taking place under the aegis of the new Anglican Reformed Church, 43 00:04:46,780 --> 00:04:53,470 not of the old Catholic Church membership, which was regarded as being subversive in those difficult times in the two year period, 44 00:04:53,470 --> 00:04:58,270 which would have read about or seen on the telly where Catholic records and Seaver's 45 00:04:58,270 --> 00:05:03,290 was thought to be very serious security threat with risks of encouragement, 46 00:05:03,290 --> 00:05:08,210 invasion by Spanish monarchs to restore Catholicism and all the rest of it. 47 00:05:08,210 --> 00:05:13,000 A number of other examples of that can be thought of. Mobility is something else. 48 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:17,470 Which populations which states in the past were very keen to control. 49 00:05:17,470 --> 00:05:30,010 We owe to the very severe, heavy control of population by Chinese imperial authorities from the earliest possible dates of view to that, 50 00:05:30,010 --> 00:05:35,980 a very substantial body of Chinese population data going back to eighty four or even earlier, 51 00:05:35,980 --> 00:05:40,300 which enables some reconstruction of the Chinese population to be made over two millennia, 52 00:05:40,300 --> 00:05:45,640 is the longest series of population estimates based on actual data which we've got, 53 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:55,120 even though it's rather fragmentary and owes itself to this very severe system of registration of of Hustle's to make 54 00:05:55,120 --> 00:06:01,960 sure they stayed where they were to ensure that the authorities knew where they were for purposes of of of taxation, 55 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:11,380 for purposes of of assembling workforces, for building those great canals which characterised the Chinese infrastructure and all the rest of it. 56 00:06:11,380 --> 00:06:17,710 That continues to the present day. The hukou system of household registration in a modern guise is still a much criticised 57 00:06:17,710 --> 00:06:22,780 element of of control of the population movement in communist China to this day. 58 00:06:22,780 --> 00:06:27,400 So not all of these state control elements have gone away by any means. 59 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:34,750 And there is also still in Belarus, the old Soviet system of a piece of an internal passport, 60 00:06:34,750 --> 00:06:41,980 also designed to regulate internal movement and prevent people living where they want to. 61 00:06:41,980 --> 00:06:48,280 In due course, personal leave starts to emerge, became useful for individuals. 62 00:06:48,280 --> 00:06:52,060 It's always been useful for people to have some record of who they are. 63 00:06:52,060 --> 00:06:58,390 And in the absence of written documentation carried by individuals in those times in the past, 64 00:06:58,390 --> 00:07:03,850 the fact that the other birth or their baptism was recorded somewhere in an official document was 65 00:07:03,850 --> 00:07:08,470 a great value to them and became increasingly valuable to them for purposes of identification, 66 00:07:08,470 --> 00:07:16,490 for purposes of proving that inheritance and their entitlement and the legitimacy of their children and all the rest. 67 00:07:16,490 --> 00:07:23,510 We move, I suppose, from the 16th, 17th century onwards into a time where were more enlightened governments, 68 00:07:23,510 --> 00:07:29,750 we became much more interested in looking after the welfare of the people and data that were increasingly collected, 69 00:07:29,750 --> 00:07:37,130 not just for the the the state's reasons that I mentioned earlier on, but for allocating resources, 70 00:07:37,130 --> 00:07:47,060 for monitoring health trends and population distribution and overcrowding and all sorts of other aspects to do with welfare, 71 00:07:47,060 --> 00:07:56,510 which were generated to the now very substantial set of population questions which we have in modern day census, 72 00:07:56,510 --> 00:08:07,400 where there are 50 or so questions mostly to do with with helping the state to to to manage population welfare rather better than previously. 73 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:15,770 So what kind of data are these are two, really three basic sorts of data which are collected which are useful for demographers. 74 00:08:15,770 --> 00:08:25,550 The one less obvious one is the census. The census is a regular universal count of the population and an evaluation 75 00:08:25,550 --> 00:08:30,920 through questions of the condition of the population is meant to be universal. 76 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:40,520 It is meant to refer to a specific point in time, preferably a particular day in a particular year is a periodic, usually held of a 10 year interval. 77 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:48,010 In some countries, a five year interval and the numbers of questions have increased over time. 78 00:08:48,010 --> 00:08:53,540 There are about 50 in this this questionnaire here. They are based on households. 79 00:08:53,540 --> 00:08:54,830 The household is a basic unit, 80 00:08:54,830 --> 00:09:03,670 and every person in the household answers answers to questions or has the questions answered for him or her by the so-called head of the household. 81 00:09:03,670 --> 00:09:11,150 Appointments are raise later on. The other major source of population information comes from so-called vital registration. 82 00:09:11,150 --> 00:09:17,360 That means that events relating to an individual's life history are recorded as they happen in the past. 83 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:22,520 These will be defined in religious terms as a baptism, as a marriage, as a burial. 84 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:31,130 In more recent times, those have been transferred, as it were, to the secular equivalent of births, marriages and deaths. 85 00:09:31,130 --> 00:09:33,980 These, in the nature of things, happen all the time. 86 00:09:33,980 --> 00:09:44,990 They require some system whereby individuals are compelled to recall these events within a certain space of time with the happening and under penalty. 87 00:09:44,990 --> 00:09:49,100 And that, of course, requires some kind of national organisation to collect that. 88 00:09:49,100 --> 00:09:52,700 Either the ecclesiastical parishes of the past, 89 00:09:52,700 --> 00:09:59,150 collecting data on the on baptisms and burials and marriages celebrated in that church or more recently, 90 00:09:59,150 --> 00:10:02,720 register offices held up and down the country. 91 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:12,380 In the developed world, in the nature of things, you've got to be quite a developed country before you can afford to have a system which records, 92 00:10:12,380 --> 00:10:18,470 which registers and vital events as they happen because it requires a structure of collecting data around the country. 93 00:10:18,470 --> 00:10:26,000 You can't do it by survey. It's got to be recorded as it happens, more or less on the spot population registers or development of that. 94 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:33,680 These are systems where usually on a local basis, not only are these events recorded as they happen, 95 00:10:33,680 --> 00:10:38,300 but also a running total of households and their composition is kept on the basis 96 00:10:38,300 --> 00:10:45,140 of an evaluation of a census type continuity up to date by adding the births, 97 00:10:45,140 --> 00:10:51,080 recording of marriages, deleting the debts running total of population and the characteristics of a population 98 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:57,140 that appears to be the future for population accumulation in the developed world, 99 00:10:57,140 --> 00:11:05,280 as I've mentioned later on. We need these two sorts of data because we're interested in risk. 100 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:08,760 It's quite interesting to know how many birthright in particular, country in particular. 101 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:14,320 It's quite interesting how many deaths there are, what we really want to know for in order to compare trends over time, 102 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:19,900 in order to compare different countries and different populations. What I really want to know is what's the risk of it? 103 00:11:19,900 --> 00:11:28,270 What's the risk to the individual of dying? What's the risk to the individual of having one or two or three children in the course of their lifetime? 104 00:11:28,270 --> 00:11:31,270 For that, you need to put together two kinds of data. 105 00:11:31,270 --> 00:11:38,350 You need to put together the population at risk, typically derived from the census or from some large scale survey. 106 00:11:38,350 --> 00:11:47,320 And to relate to that, the number of events as they happen, you divide the number of events by the population risk and you get some kind of rate, 107 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:53,500 as I'll explain next week, with a simple way of doing that is simply to work out a so-called crude rate. 108 00:11:53,500 --> 00:12:00,430 The number of events divided by the total population risk of that event times a thousand to make it into a nice round number. 109 00:12:00,430 --> 00:12:08,560 So you've got a crude birth rate or crude death rate in Iran, as in this example, it was 19 births with population in 2009. 110 00:12:08,560 --> 00:12:16,690 In this country, it's about 12 births, 1000 population, and in Uganda, about 50 births per thousand population. 111 00:12:16,690 --> 00:12:24,580 More informative measures use more data and we'll see in the next decade or two how we how 112 00:12:24,580 --> 00:12:29,920 we use rather more refined methods to give intuitively more informative measures of risk. 113 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:36,170 But enough of that later on. I mentioned that. 114 00:12:36,170 --> 00:12:42,650 Collection of data, which we use for demography, is almost all the states themselves because states for their survival, 115 00:12:42,650 --> 00:12:49,460 ever since they have been states have an interest in working out how many people they have to tax to it, to draught into the army and so on, 116 00:12:49,460 --> 00:12:54,650 and in particular to make sure their numbers aren't declining rather than rather than increasing, 117 00:12:54,650 --> 00:12:59,210 because especially in the past, where it was almost impossible to improve productivity, 118 00:12:59,210 --> 00:13:05,780 the output of a particular country would depend very much even more than it does at the moment on the number of people in that country. 119 00:13:05,780 --> 00:13:11,630 And so the more the better. Hence the growth of empires and and the growth of attempts to enumerate. 120 00:13:11,630 --> 00:13:16,550 And these go right back to ancient Sumer in the Fertile Crescent, to Egypt, to Babylon. 121 00:13:16,550 --> 00:13:23,840 Several examples in the Bible, one of which greatly complicated an attempt to introduce population registers in Britain later on. 122 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:30,590 I have I have time to mention in Rome, the census every five years for 800 years, almost none of which have survived, 123 00:13:30,590 --> 00:13:37,520 thanks to the tendency for barbarians to burn the place down from the sixth century onwards. 124 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:45,920 We do have some census records from Roman Egypt, which are extremely instructive since some individual question is from Roman Egypt, 125 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:50,870 some of which suggests that brother sister marriage was quite common. 126 00:13:50,870 --> 00:13:52,700 Following the example of the Ptolemy's, 127 00:13:52,700 --> 00:14:00,560 you recall that Cleopatra was notionally married to her brother and other people seem to think this is a good thing to do. 128 00:14:00,560 --> 00:14:08,810 The activities of the upper classes and all sorts of things emerge from these these bits of data which survived from the ancient past. 129 00:14:08,810 --> 00:14:19,040 China, as I mentioned, the hukou system of household registration, insofar as that the data were collected when dynasties were were intact, 130 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:23,060 has given us bits of information over the last two thousand years, 131 00:14:23,060 --> 00:14:30,490 which will enable this immense set of estimates of population to be to be consolidated by adding them all together. 132 00:14:30,490 --> 00:14:42,020 Here is a graph. It's a bit squashed in showing Chinese population history of the last two thousand years, the dots, 133 00:14:42,020 --> 00:14:48,920 different coloured dots are periods of actual actual enumerations or collections of enumerations. 134 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:55,670 And you can see that there are periods of time when when these are not collected because the 135 00:14:55,670 --> 00:15:00,710 Chinese history is one of the establishment of powerful dynasties which can maintain this system, 136 00:15:00,710 --> 00:15:06,200 followed by periods of of interregnums, of chaos, 137 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:10,520 during which time records are not collected and those which were collected might have been destroyed. 138 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:15,140 But you can see that we see periods of growth and we see periods of decline, 139 00:15:15,140 --> 00:15:20,210 particularly after the Mongol invasions of the 14th century, sort of 13th century, 140 00:15:20,210 --> 00:15:24,920 and then very rapid decline in increase under the chin in the 19th century and more 141 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:30,780 rapid increase of the present day than heading for a fall in about 30 years time. 142 00:15:30,780 --> 00:15:35,150 So really very interesting information can be collected for some countries 143 00:15:35,150 --> 00:15:39,620 over a long period of time from sources not intended to gratify demographers, 144 00:15:39,620 --> 00:15:50,510 but for human sciences students or scholars, but nonetheless do serve to produce all sorts of very valuable information to give back to Japan. 145 00:15:50,510 --> 00:15:53,390 I've mentioned Korea was similar. 146 00:15:53,390 --> 00:16:00,020 Interestingly, at the beginning of the early modern period, we start to see modern type censuses being being introduced, 147 00:16:00,020 --> 00:16:05,090 particularly in those countries which were under threat of demographic decline. 148 00:16:05,090 --> 00:16:10,490 As I'm sure you know, the early European colonies in North America were quite a vulnerable state. 149 00:16:10,490 --> 00:16:16,730 Some of the early ones on the continent, for example, disappeared without a trace within two years. 150 00:16:16,730 --> 00:16:25,010 Others were very precarious demographically because the death rate initially on the colonies was extremely high and their survival was uncertain. 151 00:16:25,010 --> 00:16:34,640 So we have censuses of a local kind going back to the 17th century, and in Europe we have one from seventeen hundred and three in Iceland. 152 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:41,810 That's thought to be the first modern census in Europe precisely to evaluate the size of the surviving Icelandic population, 153 00:16:41,810 --> 00:16:45,830 which had endured what many historians call a millennium of misery. 154 00:16:45,830 --> 00:16:53,960 Thanks to the deterioration of climate. We've got particularly bad in the 15th and 16th centuries and reduce the Icelandic population to that level. 155 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:58,340 There's still one sophisticated enough to hold a census of seventy thousand three, 156 00:16:58,340 --> 00:17:05,210 and that's where from that all of us, we start getting more and more censuses in European countries. 157 00:17:05,210 --> 00:17:14,990 Here are some some pioneer demographic sources, the doomsday book you have heard of, not actually a census, it was an inventory of property. 158 00:17:14,990 --> 00:17:26,660 After the Norman conquest, the king obligingly decided that all all property was his and that everyone held property as his tenant and rules. 159 00:17:26,660 --> 00:17:34,400 A book was simply an inventory of property, which happens to mention people in a way which enables us to reconstruct the population. 160 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:38,720 Given all sorts of assumptions about household size, which I won't go into. 161 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:46,250 But it is a unique source. And although there are other kinds of enquiries later on, there's nothing quite like Doomsday Book anywhere else. 162 00:17:46,250 --> 00:17:50,870 From the 16th 17th century we saw getting modern censuses, as I mentioned, first of all, 163 00:17:50,870 --> 00:17:55,040 based on individual basis and then based on a much more rational household basis, 164 00:17:55,040 --> 00:18:02,270 starting really in the middle of the of the 18th century with Sweden in 1749 and then up to the present day, 165 00:18:02,270 --> 00:18:14,430 some countries didn't hold census until quite late. As I mentioned, the Russian Empire, Motley's 1911 and a modern census in Japan, not until 1920. 166 00:18:14,430 --> 00:18:20,910 We owe to these old gentlemen, I'm afraid, ladies, women, early democracies. 167 00:18:20,910 --> 00:18:28,440 I'm sorry to say, quite different. Now, the registrar general is female and has the previous one as well, but not at this time. 168 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:36,760 It is these characters who turned these state statistics of the very first time into into demography. 169 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:44,200 It didn't previously, they were simply not used for any kind of scientific or broader political purpose. 170 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:50,170 John Graunt, concerning who Philip Krieger is, the world's greatest expert, 171 00:18:50,170 --> 00:18:56,920 really began demography in his book of 60 65 called Natural and Political Observations Upon the Bills of Mortality. 172 00:18:56,920 --> 00:19:05,500 Those are authority records of deaths kept every week by the company of parish clerks categorised by 173 00:19:05,500 --> 00:19:11,530 cause and also births in order to forewarn particularly the onset of plague and other epidemics. 174 00:19:11,530 --> 00:19:20,020 Their major function was an early warning system for a rise in deaths, which indicated that the plague had returned. 175 00:19:20,020 --> 00:19:28,440 Graunt use these data, which were published, which were collected, published, printed, made public in order to analyse the population of London. 176 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:36,580 That's the first book of demography using these state statistics collected in this in this case for very practical reasons, 177 00:19:36,580 --> 00:19:44,920 turning it into an analysis of population change with all sorts of novel discoveries previously hadn't been appreciated at all. 178 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:50,740 He, like almost all the other Englishmen here, was a fellow of the Royal Society. Quite a few of the others were clergymen. 179 00:19:50,740 --> 00:19:55,390 So an early German precursor of Maltose was a clergyman. 180 00:19:55,390 --> 00:20:02,110 Malteds himself, of course, was a clergyman. Richard Price was a clergyman, and most of the English people also were fellows of the Royal Society. 181 00:20:02,110 --> 00:20:12,640 And we see we see in this chronology of turning data collection for state purposes into a kind of science, 182 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:18,380 a kind of microcosm of the rise of the Enlightenment in in Western Europe, 183 00:20:18,380 --> 00:20:27,840 where all sorts of other kinds of scientific enquiry of a statistical and rational kind were starting to accelerate. 184 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:35,520 Hala, just just to remind you, a highly lived part of his life in a house in the new college lane, 185 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,640 which you can see with the plaque on the wall if you walk down there. 186 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:42,840 And of course, like many of these characters, he wasn't just interested in the model. 187 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:49,380 He was interested in everything, all sorts of aspects of natural science and how he was the first person to be 188 00:20:49,380 --> 00:20:55,770 able to plot the trajectory of a comet and and correctly predict its return, 189 00:20:55,770 --> 00:20:58,860 even though its returns projected to be at a time when he would be dead. 190 00:20:58,860 --> 00:21:03,840 He comes back every 75 years and he will be alive, I hope, in 2050 once you're coming back. 191 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:09,810 And Hally, the demographers also had the astronomer who's also had all sorts of other things as well. 192 00:21:09,810 --> 00:21:17,000 Great days for the polymathic. The. 193 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:28,360 The registration of is one of the. Bucket, if you to drown such things in silence and love. 194 00:21:28,360 --> 00:21:34,260 This is just to remind you how registration changes from from religious to vital events. 195 00:21:34,260 --> 00:21:38,430 Originally, we have this these parish registers from 50 to 38 in England, 196 00:21:38,430 --> 00:21:43,110 which is when the statistical curtain goes up on the English population and generates 197 00:21:43,110 --> 00:21:46,950 data which we've been able to use to reconstruct population and birth rates. 198 00:21:46,950 --> 00:21:52,320 The bills of mortality I mentioned these these enquiries into the cause of death in urban areas. 199 00:21:52,320 --> 00:22:01,890 First of all, London and then in provincial towns and then from the 17th century, the start of some attempt to evaluate things on a civil basis. 200 00:22:01,890 --> 00:22:05,970 The protectorate under Oliver Cromwell briefly introduced the civil registry place, 201 00:22:05,970 --> 00:22:11,580 a religious one not because they were religious, but because they felt that they were they were not sufficiently efficient. 202 00:22:11,580 --> 00:22:20,310 In fact, for all sorts of complicated reasons, we didn't get a compulsory registration of births and deaths in England until 1837, 203 00:22:20,310 --> 00:22:26,670 something which attracted considerable comment on the part of a foreign observers. 204 00:22:26,670 --> 00:22:33,990 And then it got more and more complicated as time has gone on, particularly with the proliferation of administrative registers, 205 00:22:33,990 --> 00:22:42,840 whereby lots of things you do probably without already noticing it, are now incorporated into fairly comprehensive sets of data. 206 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:51,420 Your National Health Service number, your national insurance number, all your driving licence, your tax records, your TV licence, the latter, 207 00:22:51,420 --> 00:22:54,630 which covers 97 percent of households in the country, 208 00:22:54,630 --> 00:23:02,910 all producing registers which you can possibly put together in a population register to replace the census, as we will see in due course. 209 00:23:02,910 --> 00:23:08,040 This is just an example of what you get from the parish registers. 210 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:09,690 This is not the actual register itself. 211 00:23:09,690 --> 00:23:21,330 It's an abstract from it, and it shows the difficulty of using of using data not collected for demographic reasons to try and turn it into demography. 212 00:23:21,330 --> 00:23:31,380 Because what you've got in the parish register is simply a where the parish was the location of the parish at the date of the event. 213 00:23:31,380 --> 00:23:35,930 The fact of the event where it was a baptism, a burial or a marriage, these are religious categories. 214 00:23:35,930 --> 00:23:38,400 Forget not not not demographic ones. 215 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:47,370 And the name of the person dying of being buried or being married or being baptised and in the latter case of the name of their parents. 216 00:23:47,370 --> 00:23:55,470 And so you don't have their ages, for example, you don't have how many previous children they got. 217 00:23:55,470 --> 00:24:00,210 You've got to work this out. And you do this by a complicated system known as well. 218 00:24:00,210 --> 00:24:04,050 It's essentially simple, very tedious, called called a record linkage, 219 00:24:04,050 --> 00:24:10,740 whereby you plough through these registers making a note of every event and every name as it arises, 220 00:24:10,740 --> 00:24:15,330 and then making a note when the same name crops up, making assumption, of course, 221 00:24:15,330 --> 00:24:19,590 that the surnames remain reasonably constant, which by this time they were. 222 00:24:19,590 --> 00:24:22,920 Once you can do that, you can slowly start to rebuild lives. 223 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:29,640 You can rebuild lives from the individual story of the birth baptism of the individual at a particular time, 224 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:37,140 the subsequent burial as a child, if they die early, their subsequent marriage, the baptisms of their children and their subsequent burial. 225 00:24:37,140 --> 00:24:43,680 So if you if they survive to a later life, if they don't move away from the parish, 226 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:51,210 you have a complete record if you can link these these events, because then you can work out how much time elapsed from one to the other. 227 00:24:51,210 --> 00:25:01,440 And here, for example, is an example. If you look at Thomas Baptist, you will see that Thomas aboutus was was baptised on June 24th. 228 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:08,370 Seventeen sixty two, and poor Thomas Battis was buried in the same year on September 21st. 229 00:25:08,370 --> 00:25:12,060 So you've already reconstructed a bit of that person's brief life. 230 00:25:12,060 --> 00:25:21,870 You've got how long he lived. And the same kind of thing enables you to work out the average length of life, the average age where people got married, 231 00:25:21,870 --> 00:25:30,630 proportion of people who got married in the course of their lives, how many children they had on average, the birth intervals of those children. 232 00:25:30,630 --> 00:25:37,410 So you can infer whether or not family planning was being employed, although certainly not all sorts of other details. 233 00:25:37,410 --> 00:25:47,070 As long as you can collect enough data, link it in registers which are sufficiently intact over a long period of time. 234 00:25:47,070 --> 00:25:54,450 And that, of course, is quite a big gift because these are hundreds of years old. They get burnt in fires, they get eaten by mice. 235 00:25:54,450 --> 00:26:05,910 They use this wrapping paper. Lazy clergymen don't keep them safe from water or may soon dispose of them. 236 00:26:05,910 --> 00:26:06,720 Nonetheless, 237 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:14,700 it is possible that the ten thousand parishes of England to recreate population using a sufficient number of hundred of these parish reconstructions. 238 00:26:14,700 --> 00:26:20,730 So we have very good data about demographic behaviour of the kind which actually lose the 19th 239 00:26:20,730 --> 00:26:26,820 century because the parish registers then become inadequate to cover the whole population. 240 00:26:26,820 --> 00:26:31,710 But this is one of the areas like astronomy where amateurs are really important, really, 241 00:26:31,710 --> 00:26:36,790 if you could not have used the parish registers to reconstruct the population of England and Wales had 242 00:26:36,790 --> 00:26:44,070 not been for an army of local amateurs willing to go through this rather numbing task of an individual, 243 00:26:44,070 --> 00:26:50,940 a record linkage and family reconstitution. These are just to show you what the bills of mortality actually look like. 244 00:26:50,940 --> 00:26:53,670 These are posters stuck up in public places. 245 00:26:53,670 --> 00:27:01,800 You can't read the detail, but on the left, we've got a weekly one for one of the London parishes, indeed for for the plague. 246 00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:10,840 And you can see how the causes of death, I don't read them or not are are all specified. 247 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:16,450 And what have we got here? Well, got aged 45. Well, that's that's all right. 248 00:27:16,450 --> 00:27:21,630 That's not allowed nowadays. You can't die of old age. Going to die of something specific age. 249 00:27:21,630 --> 00:27:25,290 You almost certainly means malaria. What else have we got? 250 00:27:25,290 --> 00:27:31,620 We've got childbed 42. That that's that's that's, um, maternal mortality. 251 00:27:31,620 --> 00:27:38,490 Childbirth. We've got smallpox here. One hundred and nine I think it is. 252 00:27:38,490 --> 00:27:56,490 We've got suddenly suddenly one and killed by a fall from the belfry as All Hallows, the Great Wall sound of a very excessively specific grief. 253 00:27:56,490 --> 00:28:07,860 Three frighted three. The important thing here is a plague which is here plague seven thousand one hundred sixty five. 254 00:28:07,860 --> 00:28:12,040 That's that's that kind of thing is a reason for the publication of these things. 255 00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:19,800 So you could you could know what was going on, your thoughts. You could take whatever futile steps there were to control the plague, 256 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:28,470 the one exception or two exceptions being one getting out of it as soon as possible and to stopping other people getting out of it to it's spreading, 257 00:28:28,470 --> 00:28:38,940 as you will see in a moment. This is the general battle for sixty sixty five, the plague showing the casualties for for each of the parishes. 258 00:28:38,940 --> 00:28:42,300 These are the parishes. They are not the cause of death. Here are the cause of death. 259 00:28:42,300 --> 00:28:48,390 The same ones as we saw some of them scientifically sensible because the symptoms are similar to the ones we use nowadays. 260 00:28:48,390 --> 00:28:56,340 Others are less scientifically respectable. Teeth and worms is one, for example, which is not terribly helpful. 261 00:28:56,340 --> 00:29:03,630 Some curious Connexions had mould shot, which I don't know if he's here or not, is responsible for that. 262 00:29:03,630 --> 00:29:17,100 We now know because the head is like a cannibal and what we got here is a plague death sixty eight thousand five hundred ninety six. 263 00:29:17,100 --> 00:29:21,240 That's sixty eight thousand out of a population of about four hundred and fifty thousand. 264 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:25,060 So enormous casualty rate from the plague and this severe. 265 00:29:25,060 --> 00:29:33,270 It's not the only one where that's where that happened. This is just to show the what I call the mostly futile pattern. 266 00:29:33,270 --> 00:29:38,340 These this is a kind of cartoon strip from all the general bills showing the progress of the plague. 267 00:29:38,340 --> 00:29:43,920 People, people dying in their bedrooms, the dogs being killed. 268 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:51,870 It was sort of a dog spread plague, completely mad dogs killed rats, which by plane, but dogs being beaten to death in the street of here, 269 00:29:51,870 --> 00:29:59,100 of birds falling out of the sky and also the court making a way out of London in the royal villages with 270 00:29:59,100 --> 00:30:05,460 old St Paul's Church in the background here we have here we have quarantine while the sensible things, 271 00:30:05,460 --> 00:30:13,890 armed men, as you see, stopping people leaving London with the hope of stopping the plague, a theoretically sensible thing to do here. 272 00:30:13,890 --> 00:30:20,220 A mass burial is going on, first of all, coffins and then cart loads of people because there weren't enough coffins. 273 00:30:20,220 --> 00:30:23,820 And then eventually the plague goes away and people start coming back. 274 00:30:23,820 --> 00:30:28,290 And those people in the background, a remarkable episode. 275 00:30:28,290 --> 00:30:37,360 And this is just a provincial one just to show how in later times these bills could be enlivened by by by tasteful poems, 276 00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:43,500 which you can see here at the bottom, but you can't read all sorts of literary effusions. 277 00:30:43,500 --> 00:30:54,630 These parish registers eventually became inadequate for all sorts of reasons, the increase of dissent and scepticism, the revival of Catholicism, 278 00:30:54,630 --> 00:31:04,680 the development of Methodist and Quaker and other forms of Christianity which didn't use the Anglican churches for for their baptisms anyway. 279 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:16,200 They did for their burials a large extent meant that the parishes registers became less useful as time went on and also the growth of data increased. 280 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:19,830 The state was becoming more intrusive in a benevolent way, 281 00:31:19,830 --> 00:31:25,140 but by this time there was a realisation that it was a state's responsibility to look after the welfare. 282 00:31:25,140 --> 00:31:33,510 Citizens and therefore, there was a demand for data measuring health, measuring population trade trends and all sorts of other things, 283 00:31:33,510 --> 00:31:41,100 not the least being the 18th century population controversy in the absence of census. 284 00:31:41,100 --> 00:31:50,590 It was almost impossible to tell whether the population was growing or not and people of considerable knowledge and mathematical ability. 285 00:31:50,590 --> 00:31:55,810 We're engaged in a considerable role in the Asian century, as well as where the population was going up or going down. 286 00:31:55,810 --> 00:32:00,040 It was, of course, going up, you know, but this is difficult to be sure and send. 287 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:09,880 One of the reasons for the census was this to resolve this population controversy more practical was the need for good data for life insurance, 288 00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:14,380 life insurance as part of the general enlightenment of society. 289 00:32:14,380 --> 00:32:22,600 And its development had been growing from the well of the 17th century onwards, even earlier in Italy. 290 00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:28,960 And that, of course, does require for its solvency to have good data on risks of mortality and expectation of life, 291 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:33,550 which are very difficult to get as one reason why they have been highly praised. 292 00:32:33,550 --> 00:32:41,200 His life table for the population of Breslau in sixteen seventy two, as I mentioned here, by 800 802, 293 00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:46,990 there were one million people insured defending societies and that required demographic data to work out the balances 294 00:32:46,990 --> 00:32:56,260 with the payments they made and the payments that they received and when when when they died or or when their insurance, 295 00:32:56,260 --> 00:33:05,290 their insurance was mature. And that was lacking. There's always a dark side to these things. 296 00:33:05,290 --> 00:33:10,080 I've mentioned the severity of the ancient Chinese registration system. 297 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:21,370 I have a quote somewhere here showing what what would happen to people who ignored the census. 298 00:33:21,370 --> 00:33:26,540 It says this dates back, back from the earliest date, around eighty two. 299 00:33:26,540 --> 00:33:38,290 There were strong penalties for evasion. And the official statement was that if the numbers were wrong because they were double checked, 300 00:33:38,290 --> 00:33:41,800 then the family were placed on the list of those liable for military service. 301 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:47,170 Any common people who hide in the census will be punished according to law and draughted into the army. 302 00:33:47,170 --> 00:33:51,700 If, in their search, the military come across minor officials who have suppressed the facts. 303 00:33:51,700 --> 00:34:02,080 Those officials are to be decapitated and other severe penalties were imposed right up to the president in recent times, avoiding the folks. 304 00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:09,490 Scotti the German population register just before during the Second World War was a very, 305 00:34:09,490 --> 00:34:17,980 very serious issue and might lead to being sent to a concentration camp and other penalties were imposed elsewhere. 306 00:34:17,980 --> 00:34:26,830 And this sometimes manifested itself in in very severe retribution to census officials who got things wrong. 307 00:34:26,830 --> 00:34:29,800 Even honestly, the Stalin was very keen. 308 00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:39,160 Like all autocrats on population growth, he felt that the population of the Soviet Union in 1837 ought to be one hundred and seventy million, 309 00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:42,820 in fact, turned one hundred and sixty two million, eight million people short. 310 00:34:42,820 --> 00:34:47,320 That's because the cost of the enormous mortality in the Ukrainian collectivisation 311 00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:51,360 famine plus the beginnings of of the heavy mortality of the great terror. 312 00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:59,550 Over a million people died. As you see, that the Census Bureau came to a bad end is just the more senior officials will give you. 313 00:34:59,550 --> 00:35:06,880 I don't know. And in fact, the whole census of 1937 was effectively hidden from public view. 314 00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:19,270 We didn't know about it until Mr. Gorbachev opened this campaign in eighteen nineteen eighty five or whatever it was. 315 00:35:19,270 --> 00:35:24,040 That was the first time that we had any clue there had been a Soviet census in nineteen thirty seven. 316 00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:28,300 There was no one in 1939 which came to the right answer amazingly enough. 317 00:35:28,300 --> 00:35:32,890 And that's when we knew about we did not know that 1837 at all. 318 00:35:32,890 --> 00:35:41,410 Perestroika as well as before. These just posters that said it's just for adornment. 319 00:35:41,410 --> 00:35:48,010 There's also a complication if instead of having autocracy, you have democracy if you want. 320 00:35:48,010 --> 00:35:59,410 Nigeria is an example I would dwell on in a moment in Pakistan because of controversy about about the battles between different provinces in Pakistan. 321 00:35:59,410 --> 00:36:03,580 There were five senses postponements in the last decade. 322 00:36:03,580 --> 00:36:12,670 The Lebanon census of 1932 was the first and so far the last that unwisely allocated the offices of state. 323 00:36:12,670 --> 00:36:15,880 According to the relative size of different population. 324 00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:23,710 Groups such as the Maronite Christians on the basis of census results were awarded the post of being president. 325 00:36:23,710 --> 00:36:32,080 The Sunni Muslim, on the basis of the numbers, evaluations and census were awarded the post of prime minister and the Shia Muslims 326 00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:37,270 were awarded the post of Speaker of the Parliament since nineteen thirty two, 327 00:36:37,270 --> 00:36:44,200 of course, because a different pace of demographic transition, the balance of numbers in Lebanon has radically changed as well. 328 00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:53,160 Of course, all kinds of terrible turmoil, is it? By no means. It is quite impossible now for a census to to confirm those those positions. 329 00:36:53,160 --> 00:37:00,130 In fact, other things have ever taken them. But there hasn't been a census since because it was so it was so much upset, the apple cart, 330 00:37:00,130 --> 00:37:07,480 as it were, with unforeseeable consequences that a different arrangement has come to. 331 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:12,010 This is the problem of what happens when you add democracy to federal report of the solution. 332 00:37:12,010 --> 00:37:19,180 And the census in Nigeria and the Constitution requires that the different major 333 00:37:19,180 --> 00:37:25,030 provinces of Nigeria have representation in the parliament according to population size. 334 00:37:25,030 --> 00:37:32,650 Accordingly, it becomes it becomes highly beneficial to these different regions to to maximise the number of people, 335 00:37:32,650 --> 00:37:39,310 particularly when there is ethnic religious conflict. The northern part of Nigeria, as I'm sure you all know, being mostly Muslim, 336 00:37:39,310 --> 00:37:43,630 the southern part being mostly Christian and animist with with increasing tension between them. 337 00:37:43,630 --> 00:37:49,600 And as you can see, the census of nineteen sixty to forty four point five million people, 338 00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:53,620 this were thought to be defective, too high for all sorts of reasons. 339 00:37:53,620 --> 00:38:04,550 It was held the next year. And amazingly enough, another 60 million people materialised as a consequence of all sorts of encouragement. 340 00:38:04,550 --> 00:38:16,730 To maximise numbers for political and economic ends that was revised back to fifty five point six and a census could not be held again until 1991, 341 00:38:16,730 --> 00:38:22,760 and that there is the census of 2006 has generated continuing controversy. 342 00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:31,400 And alas, as you know, I'm sure a religious conflict in Nigeria is getting worse rather than better. 343 00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:37,070 The developments in vital statistics are particularly interesting because they are closely 344 00:38:37,070 --> 00:38:42,020 connected with the rise of modern scientific medicine and the rise of epidemiology. 345 00:38:42,020 --> 00:38:48,800 The the value of demographic statistics is strongly highlighted by the work of William Farr, 346 00:38:48,800 --> 00:39:00,200 John Snow and others in identifying the causes of major mortality in Britain at that time. 347 00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:06,770 And it could not have been done if it not been for the collection of statistics and the manipulation of statistics with with with modern methods. 348 00:39:06,770 --> 00:39:15,260 Let me give you an example. This is the famous example of Dr John Snow and the Broad Street pump. 349 00:39:15,260 --> 00:39:22,100 Cholera, which is a disease native to Bengal, first arrived in England in I think it was 1832, 350 00:39:22,100 --> 00:39:26,960 having previously been totally unknown over the next few decades, 351 00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:33,980 it caused several hundred thousand additional deaths in five or six separate epidemics in London and elsewhere. 352 00:39:33,980 --> 00:39:40,010 Cholera is a disease which is spread through sewage, contaminated drinking water and sewage contaminated food. 353 00:39:40,010 --> 00:39:43,640 If you keep sewage and water apart, there's no cholera. 354 00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:45,800 If you combine them, you get cholera. 355 00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:54,260 The sewers of London at that time were a perfect environment for the spread of cholera because sewage went into the Thames, 356 00:39:54,260 --> 00:39:56,180 drinking water was taken out of the Thames, 357 00:39:56,180 --> 00:40:05,390 and therefore we got a wonderful environment for the spread of cholera and also for typhoid and typhoid, which have the same sort of ecology. 358 00:40:05,390 --> 00:40:11,720 No one knew what the cause of these diseases, what it was. It was assumed that it was essentially asthmatic. 359 00:40:11,720 --> 00:40:18,860 That disease of this kind was caused by vapours emerging from contaminated ground and being 360 00:40:18,860 --> 00:40:23,730 breathed in and causing the disease that the there was some suspicion about about germs, 361 00:40:23,730 --> 00:40:29,930 but really no knowledge about the germ, no acceptance of the germ theory of disease. 362 00:40:29,930 --> 00:40:37,400 The many say it was not as daft as it seems because it was certainly the case that death rates were always higher in swampy, low lying ground. 363 00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:44,810 Where were these? And the asthma could easily be imagined to be much more prevalent than that in more better ventilated areas of London, 364 00:40:44,810 --> 00:40:54,200 say in Highgate in Hampstead, which is why I was so popular as places to live amongst the better off at that time and indeed since before reasons. 365 00:40:54,200 --> 00:41:00,050 What the combination of demographic data and and maps managed to do was to was to show 366 00:41:00,050 --> 00:41:05,150 that this could not possibly be true and that something in the water was causing cholera. 367 00:41:05,150 --> 00:41:10,580 It wasn't even known what was causing it, but a purely statistical inference from demographic data plus maps. 368 00:41:10,580 --> 00:41:15,200 So it had to be something in the water and that enabled the problem to be resolved. 369 00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:23,440 This map on the left is Dr. John Snow's map of the cholera cases in in part of London. 370 00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:29,860 In in 1854, which, of course, you couldn't get unless you had a record of the cause of death, 371 00:41:29,860 --> 00:41:34,270 which of course is what Civil Registration 37 provides you with a compulsory 372 00:41:34,270 --> 00:41:38,470 record of the cause of death on reasonably modern scientific medical grounds, 373 00:41:38,470 --> 00:41:47,050 he was able to show that those people who were getting most likely to get cholera in this area were getting their water from a particular pump. 374 00:41:47,050 --> 00:41:56,820 The famous Broadstreet pump, and there was a replica of it in in that area with a pub devoted to John Snow on the caller. 375 00:41:56,820 --> 00:42:03,180 And that that was an example of demonstrating a mode of transmission of disease, 376 00:42:03,180 --> 00:42:11,790 using purely statistical data without then be able to show that the microbes under under the microscope, which led up later, was responsible. 377 00:42:11,790 --> 00:42:22,420 And John Snow in this particular case, and William far more broadly were able to to so demonstrate the importance of water. 378 00:42:22,420 --> 00:42:31,410 Water sources in the epidemiology of cholera and typhoid imperative that several in modern terminology, 379 00:42:31,410 --> 00:42:35,220 several hundred million pounds was then spent in the 90s, 380 00:42:35,220 --> 00:42:41,760 in the 60s in producing a major system of interceptor sewers in London with the primary purpose of 381 00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:46,860 the elementary task of separating sewage from drinking water as a consequence of that investment. 382 00:42:46,860 --> 00:42:52,070 Cholera disappeared and typhoid imparato typhoid went into terminal decline. 383 00:42:52,070 --> 00:42:53,700 Quite remarkable example. 384 00:42:53,700 --> 00:43:00,780 And those are the sewers which still operate in London, although they're now need a considerable expansion thanks to the growth of population. 385 00:43:00,780 --> 00:43:05,760 Hence the great London Project at the moment, as you would have probably heard of. 386 00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:12,430 So. I must press on. 387 00:43:12,430 --> 00:43:18,010 The problems of voter registration and sentences, particularly of censuses, 388 00:43:18,010 --> 00:43:27,760 are leading to a radical change in the way that data are collected, which has considerable political overtones and is quite controversial. 389 00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:32,110 This is the development of person no registration systems, 390 00:43:32,110 --> 00:43:42,460 which would use a combination of census and administrative data to to to create the possibility of record linkage for every individual. 391 00:43:42,460 --> 00:43:48,310 So individuals are traced from or tracked from birth using a unique personal number, 392 00:43:48,310 --> 00:43:56,830 which is then used for their subsequent vital events for recording such vital events and also linked to to their residence, 393 00:43:56,830 --> 00:44:02,630 to their tax and other things. So you can see why it may be controversial. 394 00:44:02,630 --> 00:44:11,720 OK, I've got some more questions in a modern household sense that you got in front of you, something to take away in case it amuses you. 395 00:44:11,720 --> 00:44:15,950 And this is a summary of what the questions are they getting rather numerous. 396 00:44:15,950 --> 00:44:21,020 And that's one of the reasons why the future of the census is is under doubt. 397 00:44:21,020 --> 00:44:25,190 There are all sorts of problems typically with the census. 398 00:44:25,190 --> 00:44:28,910 Naturally, some people have missed as undercount mobile populations. 399 00:44:28,910 --> 00:44:34,670 I know in the desert or homeless people on the streets of London are difficult to count. 400 00:44:34,670 --> 00:44:38,330 Mistreatment is common. Old people exaggerate their age. 401 00:44:38,330 --> 00:44:48,380 People in simple societies don't know their age. And so you get a very amusing aspect of AGP, which is illustrated here. 402 00:44:48,380 --> 00:44:54,390 And this is AGP in the Indian census in 2001 when people don't know their exact age. 403 00:44:54,390 --> 00:44:58,730 So it's not important to them terribly in poorer areas. 404 00:44:58,730 --> 00:45:01,910 They will they will approximate it. Naturally, 405 00:45:01,910 --> 00:45:09,530 they were rounded up as well as the decimal system to the nearest ten available without feeling that they were rounded up to the nearest five. 406 00:45:09,530 --> 00:45:20,840 And you can see that there's a great excess of people at a different age of 10 and a similar one, a small one at age five, 407 00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:25,100 which diminishes with the younger population, younger population, much better educated, 408 00:45:25,100 --> 00:45:28,580 much more likely to know its exact age than older people up here. 409 00:45:28,580 --> 00:45:31,060 Most of them don't know that exact age. 410 00:45:31,060 --> 00:45:37,990 So that's got to be corrected by all sorts of ingenious devices if you want to have a proper population pyramid. 411 00:45:37,990 --> 00:45:43,960 We also have problems in this country. The sense of 1991 was thought to to have missed a million people. 412 00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:50,140 Subsequent enquiries suggested haven't actually missed a million people, but in fact, they had emigrated. 413 00:45:50,140 --> 00:45:58,220 The estimation of that of that excess emigration was itself turned out to be inaccurate and require 414 00:45:58,220 --> 00:46:04,810 the owners to invent a fudge of 290000 people to account for the unattributable demographic change, 415 00:46:04,810 --> 00:46:11,260 a new category in population which was inserted into the census estimates to block to 416 00:46:11,260 --> 00:46:19,780 for that to block the gap in the estimates of a yearly basis and the census total. 417 00:46:19,780 --> 00:46:27,310 And the 2011 census showed the 2001 census to be wrong by about 250000 people as well. 418 00:46:27,310 --> 00:46:32,080 So we've got a problem with the census, several reasons for having the problem. 419 00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:34,780 The census. The pattern of expenditure is uneven. 420 00:46:34,780 --> 00:46:40,300 Every 10 years you've got to we've got to assemble a large number of people to carry out the census enumerators, 421 00:46:40,300 --> 00:46:47,260 analyse this and the other and the cost of all the publication and analysis, 422 00:46:47,260 --> 00:46:52,330 about 500 million per time that actually, if you think about it, isn't all that much per head. 423 00:46:52,330 --> 00:46:55,690 With a population of 60 million, it's only about 12 quid per head. 424 00:46:55,690 --> 00:47:03,400 So it's not that bad. But it seems it's an awful lot in a budget when it comes in as a lump every 10 years, as it were, 425 00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:11,650 rather than being spread evenly so that the cost of census is one of the reasons for for the pressure to move to something else. 426 00:47:11,650 --> 00:47:17,740 You'll never get the data quicker than a year after the census. The detailed data takes two years or even more. 427 00:47:17,740 --> 00:47:25,090 So there's already a picture of the past. And then when with a mobile society, it starts getting obsolescent very rapidly. 428 00:47:25,090 --> 00:47:28,270 As Harold Macmillan observes, even back in nineteen fifty six, 429 00:47:28,270 --> 00:47:36,820 he said that using using the census data to make rational decisions about distribution of expenditure. 430 00:47:36,820 --> 00:47:42,040 And so it was rather like using last year's railway timetable to catch this year's trends. 431 00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:48,550 There are increasing civil liberties objections both from the right, especially in North America and also from from the liberal left. 432 00:47:48,550 --> 00:47:53,260 And there's a particular problem in Germany for obvious reasons, for any kind of enumeration, 433 00:47:53,260 --> 00:47:56,590 you don't normally get more than 95 percent of the population counted. 434 00:47:56,590 --> 00:48:02,740 And it may be in some districts in Britain, it was down to 62 percent, according to the estimates later, mate. 435 00:48:02,740 --> 00:48:09,070 And so there are all sorts of problems about the census, which is leading to the, um, 436 00:48:09,070 --> 00:48:19,690 to this kind of comment with an increasingly intrusive welfare state where governments are spending 30, 40, 50 percent of the whole GDP. 437 00:48:19,690 --> 00:48:27,190 They're trying to do so on the basis of inadequate numbers. Consequently, population registers are gaining ground. 438 00:48:27,190 --> 00:48:34,960 And it is now the case that a majority of countries in Western Europe have moved 439 00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:38,140 away from traditional census of the kind which you've got in front of you. 440 00:48:38,140 --> 00:48:46,990 And we've moved to a system of population registration whereby which is thought to include everyone in the population without being included, 441 00:48:46,990 --> 00:48:49,810 in which you can't really access public services, 442 00:48:49,810 --> 00:48:56,950 which has been uncontroversial for two or three decades now in the Scandinavian countries, and is being adopted very generally. 443 00:48:56,950 --> 00:49:07,330 I think in the 2010 11 round of of censuses, only Britain and Spain and Portugal held traditional census. 444 00:49:07,330 --> 00:49:11,710 Eastern Europe. They still have traditional censuses in Western Europe. 445 00:49:11,710 --> 00:49:19,160 It is now much more question of population registers. The UK government has decided that this census you've got in front of you shall be the last. 446 00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:22,570 It may have to change its mind because they have not yet come up with the replacement. 447 00:49:22,570 --> 00:49:26,590 We've got to have the data to run to try and run some aspects of the country properly. 448 00:49:26,590 --> 00:49:30,280 No one's yet decided, despite some frantic efforts, what should replace it. 449 00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:37,360 They are nervous of a population register and in any case, there is a time between now and 2021 to create one. 450 00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:44,560 It is a complicated process and I think you're cobbling together estimates of all kinds of separate, separate, 451 00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:51,730 separate systems which already exist, including commercial ones, were already part of the way to register in the UK without knowing it. 452 00:49:51,730 --> 00:49:57,370 We already collect data increasingly universally on all of these things. 453 00:49:57,370 --> 00:50:02,140 The National Insurance number. Everyone is on a single national insurance. 454 00:50:02,140 --> 00:50:06,130 No Department of Work and Pensions uses it. 455 00:50:06,130 --> 00:50:09,040 Majesty's Revenue and Customs uses it. 456 00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:16,870 The National Health Service Central Register also includes all births now and all people resident in the country. 457 00:50:16,870 --> 00:50:24,370 And there are various other ones which which I mentioned here. These if there were to be a population because of these we put together linked by 458 00:50:24,370 --> 00:50:30,630 personal number and and probably administer to local authority level as it is in in. 459 00:50:30,630 --> 00:50:36,160 In the Netherlands, that's not going to happen by 2020. What exactly what will happen, though? 460 00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:41,190 It'll probably be some sort of messy British mismatch. 461 00:50:41,190 --> 00:50:48,260 We'll have to wait and see. So things are changing rapidly in the world of enumeration. 462 00:50:48,260 --> 00:50:59,010 That's not to say without controversy. And from my own part, it seems to me the controversy is needless nonetheless is going to be, I think, 463 00:50:59,010 --> 00:51:03,810 an increasingly interesting political and salient political development over the next few years. 464 00:51:03,810 --> 00:51:07,560 If you can watch with some interest there, I will stop. 465 00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:12,975 Thank you all very much.