1 00:00:07,020 --> 00:00:13,380 Here at the University of Oxford, but also the Oxford Local Group of the Royal Statistical Society. 2 00:00:13,380 --> 00:00:18,630 So we are combined in welcoming our speaker, Davina Dakotah. 3 00:00:18,630 --> 00:00:26,550 He's going to speak today about finding today's slaves. Lessons learnt from over a decade of measurement of modern slavery. 4 00:00:26,550 --> 00:00:33,130 So do we if we if we look online. And so Google has got all sorts of awards. 5 00:00:33,130 --> 00:00:38,470 She's a science ambassador to international human rights devastation. 6 00:00:38,470 --> 00:00:47,370 And if you order now, you can get the both wonder women of Science, where she's one of the twelve geniuses who's rocking the world. 7 00:00:47,370 --> 00:00:51,720 So we get you getting there early is what it's all about. 8 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:59,390 So, yes, the debate is going to be talking to us today about the statistical challenges of some really important problems. 9 00:00:59,390 --> 00:01:06,750 So, you know, they're interesting statistically. They're interesting politically and just as human being. 10 00:01:06,750 --> 00:01:13,200 So it covers all the bases. So please note that this will be recorded. 11 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:21,270 And so if you don't want to be part of the recording, please turn off your sound and your your video. 12 00:01:21,270 --> 00:01:27,810 And at the end, we will be taking questions so you can type your questions in the chat. 13 00:01:27,810 --> 00:01:31,980 If you want to. And I can ask them on your behalf. 14 00:01:31,980 --> 00:01:39,120 So we'll hand over to you. And you can share the screen and then we will ask questions later. 15 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:42,210 Excellent. Thank you, Crystal. And thank you, everyone, for joining. 16 00:01:42,210 --> 00:01:48,150 In the short time that I've been able to connect with some of the amazing groups here in Oxford. 17 00:01:48,150 --> 00:01:52,380 I felt so welcomed. So a shout out to the statistics equity group. 18 00:01:52,380 --> 00:01:59,580 I'm so thrilled to see some of my my fellow colleagues there and great friends like Sir Bernard Silverman and Crystal Donelli and Beverly Laine. 19 00:01:59,580 --> 00:02:05,010 Thank you all for joining today. And I'm really looking forward to having this discussion. 20 00:02:05,010 --> 00:02:11,580 So, as Crystal noted, I've been working on modern slavery for quite a while. 21 00:02:11,580 --> 00:02:18,090 The organisation I work with, its complimentary foundation. And actually, believe it or not, this plan is a little bit outdated. 22 00:02:18,090 --> 00:02:25,530 We have contributed over two billion, eight Australian dollars to many issues facing the planet right now, 23 00:02:25,530 --> 00:02:30,600 including removing plastics from the world's oceans all the way to eradicating modern slavery. 24 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:35,400 So for me, it's really compelling to have this background of a foundation that is well 25 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:40,500 resourced and really has science and evidence at the core of everything we do. 26 00:02:40,500 --> 00:02:47,280 In addition to the work that I'm very passionate about, our modern slavery in particular, 27 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:54,960 we have quite a bit of these initiatives focussing on a lot of things that, as you can see, are really related to risks to modern slavery. 28 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:58,740 We look at have an organisation called Generation One that looks at creating 29 00:02:58,740 --> 00:03:03,570 indigenous parody and really focussing on the needs of indigenous populations. 30 00:03:03,570 --> 00:03:11,370 We have three by five that looks at early childhood development and education. We have the flourishing oceans work where we restore ocean health. 31 00:03:11,370 --> 00:03:19,380 And actually I'm leading a project on slavery at sea, which we'll talk a little bit more about some of the slaves that we find at sea as well. 32 00:03:19,380 --> 00:03:26,690 And looking in general at broader research practises. But this is the big number. 33 00:03:26,690 --> 00:03:33,980 Forty point three million people around the world were victims of modern slavery on any given day in 2016. 34 00:03:33,980 --> 00:03:41,960 This might seem like just another statistic. But what it represents is a momentous occasion of partnership that had not happened previously. 35 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:48,770 This number was the number we developed with the UN's International Labour Organisation and the International Organisation for Migration. 36 00:03:48,770 --> 00:03:55,940 And the first time that we were able to collaborate on such a large scale of survey research and to agree on a number, 37 00:03:55,940 --> 00:03:59,750 a single number to work as to work in a field. 38 00:03:59,750 --> 00:04:05,930 Previously, there were competing estimates, competing methodologies, and it was just very, very confusing from an advocacy perspective. 39 00:04:05,930 --> 00:04:14,390 So this was a really big milestone in our fields and we have every intention of continuing these partnerships moving forward. 40 00:04:14,390 --> 00:04:15,290 In particular, 41 00:04:15,290 --> 00:04:23,090 this number is comprised of twenty four point nine million people enforce Labour and fifteen point four million people enforce marriage. 42 00:04:23,090 --> 00:04:26,240 Again, this may seem like just numbers, 43 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:33,230 but what it actually represents is our conscious decision to include forced marriage in the centre of this discussion. 44 00:04:33,230 --> 00:04:40,100 Previously, forced marriage had not necessarily been in the central focal discussion points of a lot 45 00:04:40,100 --> 00:04:43,640 of antislavery groups that it was it was something that we consider to be a problem, 46 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:47,450 but it was very difficult to tackle in a meaningful way. 47 00:04:47,450 --> 00:04:54,770 However, we made a concerted decision in our measurement and survey tools to try to estimate modern slavery in forced marriage. 48 00:04:54,770 --> 00:04:58,070 And we included this in a number with this decision. 49 00:04:58,070 --> 00:05:05,450 We automatically included a whole component of our victim populations that had previously been on the margins of our field. 50 00:05:05,450 --> 00:05:11,800 So if ever you're wondering about the the decisions that your measurement choices, 51 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:17,660 the the the decisions are making and measurement choices and what that impact can be on the field, 52 00:05:17,660 --> 00:05:23,950 rest assured, they can have a huge impact on how policy is created. 53 00:05:23,950 --> 00:05:31,270 Additionally, we had some of the more conventional industries of forced labour that came out of our research. 54 00:05:31,270 --> 00:05:36,670 There was domestic servitude, of course, and people were forced to provide domestic work in a home. 55 00:05:36,670 --> 00:05:45,580 It's a particularly challenging type of servitude to under cover because these people are typically kept within a private sphere. 56 00:05:45,580 --> 00:05:52,480 There's very little interest in the public domain, making reporting law enforcement actions and other interventions very difficult. 57 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:59,980 Of course, there is forced labour and sex. There's construction, fishing, which we'll talk a little bit more about agriculture. 58 00:05:59,980 --> 00:06:03,880 And that's a really compelling one from a U.S. context as well. 59 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:11,020 And globally. And manufacturing. But what do we actually do? 60 00:06:11,020 --> 00:06:16,030 Why is a statistician working on modern slavery? And how how do we even do this? 61 00:06:16,030 --> 00:06:25,180 How do these two things come together? Fundamentally, I think the real challenge in our work is to find hidden populations in uncontrolled spaces. 62 00:06:25,180 --> 00:06:34,690 Generally speaking, our survey research does a pretty good job of finding relatively hidden populations in relatively conventional settings. 63 00:06:34,690 --> 00:06:42,250 That means that we use household surveys. We use a technique called multiple systems estimation, which is actually pioneered by our very own. 64 00:06:42,250 --> 00:06:48,190 Sir Bernard Silverman is on the call today in the United Kingdom and has since been continued 65 00:06:48,190 --> 00:06:52,780 and reviews that in a partnership with the UN Office on Drugs and Crime in Romania, 66 00:06:52,780 --> 00:06:56,740 Serbia, Ireland, the Netherlands. 67 00:06:56,740 --> 00:07:01,630 And it's been really compelling. So we have these research methods. And I'll tell you a little about today. 68 00:07:01,630 --> 00:07:04,570 But the real challenge is that all of these things, 69 00:07:04,570 --> 00:07:11,770 the way that we get better at finding conventional slaves that are that are generally hidden population is then by zeroing in on what we're missing. 70 00:07:11,770 --> 00:07:17,620 So when we think about forced conscription and child combatants, these are often in places that are plagued by conflict. 71 00:07:17,620 --> 00:07:23,440 Those are often not places that can safely allow field enumerators and survey enumerators to do their work. 72 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:29,860 So it becomes something that we can focus on because we recognise we recognise the issue as it exists. 73 00:07:29,860 --> 00:07:33,670 And we know that we we need to try to find a way to measure that. 74 00:07:33,670 --> 00:07:37,180 There's a legal logging in the Amazon that's typically Peru, Brazil, 75 00:07:37,180 --> 00:07:44,050 and that's where a lot of timber is is exported to major economies all around the world. 76 00:07:44,050 --> 00:07:48,670 What's really interesting about that is, of course, it's a highly mobile network. 77 00:07:48,670 --> 00:07:54,220 As soon as they've depleted tree and forestry resources in a certain part of the country, 78 00:07:54,220 --> 00:08:00,940 they're moving on to another location and it becomes very difficult to intervene and to protect these populations. 79 00:08:00,940 --> 00:08:07,000 Additionally, they tend to be in quite isolated settings. So even intervention becomes quite dangerous. 80 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:12,400 There are also deep sea slaves. So I mentioned before that I'm working on a project on slavery at sea. 81 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:20,230 And I'm really excited about this domain in particular, walk free as a part of a broader, 82 00:08:20,230 --> 00:08:30,970 decent work in fisheries expert working group work with Greenpeace over the last two years to try to really talk to another major research group. 83 00:08:30,970 --> 00:08:35,510 The Department of Labours list of goods made with forced and child labour, 84 00:08:35,510 --> 00:08:39,040 and to advocate for the fact that we know that distant water fishing fleets in 85 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:43,870 China and Taiwan had extraordinary levels of abuse where people are stuck on 86 00:08:43,870 --> 00:08:47,170 these fishing vessels and these distant water fishing fleets and distant water 87 00:08:47,170 --> 00:08:51,430 means that it's outside of the territorial domain of most of these countries. 88 00:08:51,430 --> 00:08:56,620 And so often they may claim that they're not responsible for what's occurring. 89 00:08:56,620 --> 00:09:04,450 What makes this really interesting is by advocating with colleagues that we've built relationships with over years, 90 00:09:04,450 --> 00:09:11,260 we were able to say that actually the measurement and inclusion of these distant water fishing products on your lists 91 00:09:11,260 --> 00:09:17,890 will help do more for this regulatory framework than than anything we could individually advocate for on our own. 92 00:09:17,890 --> 00:09:23,470 And this year, we were so thrilled to be successful in that effort and to have both Taiwan and China 93 00:09:23,470 --> 00:09:27,340 named as responsible for the fishing products from their distant water fishing fleets. 94 00:09:27,340 --> 00:09:34,300 This is incredibly significant. That means that essentially overnight with the publication of this one list, that now China and Taiwan, 95 00:09:34,300 --> 00:09:42,190 we're in a position of having to explain how their distant water fishing fleets were not engaging in forced labour rather than acting with impunity. 96 00:09:42,190 --> 00:09:47,200 So it's a really powerful example of how our scholarship and our research, when appropriately applied, 97 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:52,810 can have an incredible and exponentially effective impact on the real world. 98 00:09:52,810 --> 00:10:00,940 What's really great, too, about this example is that these are thousands of fishing fleets that were magically brought under scrutiny. 99 00:10:00,940 --> 00:10:05,910 And it is it is a huge personal point of pride. 100 00:10:05,910 --> 00:10:11,530 I'm really excited that policy can be acted that way, especially in the backbone of measurement. 101 00:10:11,530 --> 00:10:18,790 We also talk about child soldiers a lot. And there's been scholarship in the United States that indicates that actually in most developed countries, 102 00:10:18,790 --> 00:10:22,000 all forms of modern slavery exist except for child soldiers. 103 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:33,250 And it may make sense, but in the absence of ethnic or or official government conflicts, that there may not be a space or scope for child soldiers. 104 00:10:33,250 --> 00:10:38,830 However, I was really interested to notice that when my sister was volunteering in the south side of Chicago, 105 00:10:38,830 --> 00:10:46,330 which is an area known for rampant gang activity, that a lot of her students were affiliated with gangs, 106 00:10:46,330 --> 00:10:52,120 but not because of any of the conventional reasons you might suspect they were affiliated 107 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:55,810 with gangs because law enforcement did not have positive control in their neighbourhoods. 108 00:10:55,810 --> 00:11:01,510 And so it became an act of survival to either affiliate with the local group that could 109 00:11:01,510 --> 00:11:07,150 then provide some form of protection or to risk not having any affiliations at all. 110 00:11:07,150 --> 00:11:08,820 So when I thought about this, I've. 111 00:11:08,820 --> 00:11:20,760 Looking in all developed countries in particular about how child child soldiers may be reconceive reconfigured and reconceptualized in this context, 112 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:26,310 especially since, of course, this is an issue that is not a stranger to any developed countries. 113 00:11:26,310 --> 00:11:34,200 And then, of course, irregular migration and refugees. The Syrian conflict, I think, is a humongous failure as an applied statistician. 114 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:40,890 I look at that and I think about the millions of people that are missing the multilateral opportunities. 115 00:11:40,890 --> 00:11:46,290 We had to intervene and to provide protection that we effectively leave. 116 00:11:46,290 --> 00:11:52,410 We failed. We failed our in our knowledge of what happens when governments and in civil conflict take over. 117 00:11:52,410 --> 00:12:01,080 We've really not lived up to what I feel is our burden of responsibility here. 118 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:07,440 Unfortunately, I have to say a very similar trend has uncovered has unfolded in Venezuela. 119 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:15,990 So from an academic perspective, I think we hold ourselves to really high account in terms of what we need to do to understand not just the drivers 120 00:12:15,990 --> 00:12:24,660 that led to to risk to modern slavery and other forms of abuse from these these societal and governmental collapses. 121 00:12:24,660 --> 00:12:30,360 But we also need to think very carefully about these routes for migration and where are these vulnerable populations are ending up. 122 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:34,800 And so we've commissioned some really interesting research on the Colombian and Venezuelan border. 123 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:39,160 And we've been looking at this will continue to be an area of focus for us. 124 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:47,370 So as statisticians, as people that are interested in having an impact on the world, this is something that I really want to impress, 125 00:12:47,370 --> 00:12:58,430 is that I often find that we we have such a responsibility to the broader societal and international relations flows that we can have an impact. 126 00:12:58,430 --> 00:13:05,430 It's just a matter of us being as proactive as possible and really using our policy tools when they're available. 127 00:13:05,430 --> 00:13:15,540 It's also really interesting is that this is not just a tough issue emotionally or in terms of like the people it's affecting that we always keep. 128 00:13:15,540 --> 00:13:18,030 Front and centre in all of our work. 129 00:13:18,030 --> 00:13:25,020 It's also often done in a very challenging context, meaning that often governments will take umbrage with our findings. 130 00:13:25,020 --> 00:13:34,770 And so there is quite an interesting anecdote where in 2017, just before we published the global estimates of modern slavery, 131 00:13:34,770 --> 00:13:39,630 we actually I personally received an award from the Times of India, 132 00:13:39,630 --> 00:13:45,740 an Indian American working on modern slavery, specifically tied to our work on the Global Slavery Index. 133 00:13:45,740 --> 00:13:51,600 But in general, just on modern slavery. After our report with the ILO was published, 134 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:59,880 this Guardian article came out that alerted us that the Indian intelligence service had notified Prime Minister 135 00:13:59,880 --> 00:14:06,330 Modi to look into our group because they were concerned that our research might tarnish the reputation of India. 136 00:14:06,330 --> 00:14:12,420 Of course, this is really ironic because they had on one hand awarded and recognised that type of prevalence research, 137 00:14:12,420 --> 00:14:14,070 knowing very well that, of course, 138 00:14:14,070 --> 00:14:20,370 a country like India with a huge population and a lot of vulnerability factors will have higher rates of modern slavery, 139 00:14:20,370 --> 00:14:24,840 not to mention the original survey research that we also conduct in the region. 140 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:33,000 But then that our research could so threaten a leading government that this would be a priority for them. 141 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:39,720 And so for me, it's almost another point of privilege for us as statisticians and people working in this space. 142 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:43,650 I never thought that we could have an impact like this where any government's 143 00:14:43,650 --> 00:14:49,560 intelligence service would notice or or care about something we publish in a report. 144 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:57,540 And so it's just another note to say that the work we do can have such a profound impact on GUNGUN governments and policies. 145 00:14:57,540 --> 00:15:04,470 And what's really great is that in order to to look into this research, to try to discredit it so that it wouldn't hurt the reputation, 146 00:15:04,470 --> 00:15:10,950 it actually meant that there was there was validity and and concern about those findings in the first place. 147 00:15:10,950 --> 00:15:13,680 So it was a it was a really interesting moment for me personally. 148 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:23,040 And I know for our team it's it makes me very proud all the time that we have the conviction to follow through on on these human rights issues. 149 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:28,370 Another very difficult context that we addressed pretty comprehensively in the 2018 Global Slavery Index. 150 00:15:28,370 --> 00:15:33,810 I'll tell you a little bit more in a second. It was North Korea. So these this is state imposed forced labour. 151 00:15:33,810 --> 00:15:37,020 It's where we have substantial, 152 00:15:37,020 --> 00:15:45,930 credible reports that North Korean government officials are using labour camps to punish political dissidents and minority populations. 153 00:15:45,930 --> 00:15:51,360 And so coming after a government like that and being very clear about this is our position. 154 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:56,460 And this is how we're estimating. It was also quite contentious. But it was something that was really important. 155 00:15:56,460 --> 00:16:01,470 And we worked closely with a North Korean defector and survivor, young MI Park. 156 00:16:01,470 --> 00:16:05,580 And she's an inspiration to all of us and really, 157 00:16:05,580 --> 00:16:13,500 really has spoken candidly about how doing this research shines a light on what she's she and others have experienced. 158 00:16:13,500 --> 00:16:21,110 And it's the first step to preventing it in the future. Now, to give you a little bit background on the global slavery index. 159 00:16:21,110 --> 00:16:27,050 So one of the really interesting things is that we try to look at global slavery pretty comprehensively. 160 00:16:27,050 --> 00:16:31,400 We have our prevalence estimations of modern slavery, country by country. 161 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:38,000 And that's informed a lot by our survey research programme. And, of course, our other quantitative assessments. 162 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:41,240 I'll tell you about that in a minute. And we have a government response database. 163 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,240 So the government response database is really compelling because it goes country 164 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:48,770 by country and indicator by indicator of including references to all the sources. 165 00:16:48,770 --> 00:16:55,010 So if you have a question about what any given country is doing on a specific aspect of modern slavery intervention, 166 00:16:55,010 --> 00:17:00,860 this is a great way to double checking to see what what the sources are for. 167 00:17:00,860 --> 00:17:07,200 Are our assessments. Additionally, we also share these questionnaires with NGOs and governments. 168 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:14,900 So you'll have an opportunity to see that, for example, in the United States, if we have protections on the books for migrants, 169 00:17:14,900 --> 00:17:19,250 victims of modern slavery, so foreign nationals that require immigration protection. 170 00:17:19,250 --> 00:17:28,310 But we don't live up to providing that protection than actually instead of getting a point for providing the legal basis for that protection. 171 00:17:28,310 --> 00:17:33,650 If it's not offered and in reality, then it is given a demerit point. 172 00:17:33,650 --> 00:17:38,060 So it's an interesting way to look at this nice fact checking. 173 00:17:38,060 --> 00:17:43,160 And of course, there's a vulnerability model which helps us to understand the risk profiles of each country relative 174 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:50,540 to each other so that we can make the survey research that we have extend that much further. 175 00:17:50,540 --> 00:17:58,490 And today we'll talk specifically about prevalence and vulnerability. So how do we measure modern slavery in the twenty eighteen Global Slavery Index? 176 00:17:58,490 --> 00:18:05,780 We effectively used 48 countries as a sample of the world. Now, as you might know, this is not a full proof exercise. 177 00:18:05,780 --> 00:18:11,900 Of course, these are not a completely random sample. They are guided by where countries are. 178 00:18:11,900 --> 00:18:17,750 Which countries can perform surveys? Nationally, representative household surveys. 179 00:18:17,750 --> 00:18:21,530 And also, it's not easy to capture a lot of these. 180 00:18:21,530 --> 00:18:28,580 The aspects of these crime, for example, for sexual exploitation is a very difficult thing to discern in Face-To-Face interviews. 181 00:18:28,580 --> 00:18:36,430 Additionally, surveys are limited. We can't interview people that are currently institutionalised, that they can't be in military barracks. 182 00:18:36,430 --> 00:18:42,950 We can't they can't be incarcerated. So there are populations that would be a potential interest to us that are sometimes off limits. 183 00:18:42,950 --> 00:18:47,990 In our survey research, additionally, of course, children are protected. 184 00:18:47,990 --> 00:18:54,020 And so it is also another population that's a bit difficult to identify. 185 00:18:54,020 --> 00:18:58,400 But the great part about our survey research is that it is not just numbers. 186 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:05,960 We also have these free response, verbatim opportunities where people can share in their own words what their experiences have meant to them. 187 00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:09,350 Now, this is really valuable for us also from a quantitative perspective, 188 00:19:09,350 --> 00:19:17,990 because we can look at how they've described their experiences and also use that as a a fact cheque for 189 00:19:17,990 --> 00:19:25,490 how our survey enumerators in the fields have described their situation as they've interpreted it. 190 00:19:25,490 --> 00:19:30,920 We also just have an opportunity for people around the world who are largely unheard. 191 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,080 To share what their experiences have been like. 192 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:39,110 And it helps us to understand the magnitude of what we're dealing with, especially from a policy perspective. 193 00:19:39,110 --> 00:19:48,350 For example, in 2018, the most common reason why people stayed in a situation of forced labour and modern slavery was because of withheld wages. 194 00:19:48,350 --> 00:19:51,680 Now, that's a really interesting policy point. That's a compounding issue. 195 00:19:51,680 --> 00:20:00,140 That means that when wages are withheld, you stay in that position of exploitation, hoping that you will recoup those wages at some point. 196 00:20:00,140 --> 00:20:06,350 But the reality is that this only continues to push you further and further into and keep you in these situations. 197 00:20:06,350 --> 00:20:15,050 So it's a really interesting way to understand how people see these situations in their own lives. 198 00:20:15,050 --> 00:20:23,210 For vulnerability, we actually look at several risk factors and we use we create dimensions that reflect some of 199 00:20:23,210 --> 00:20:28,640 the biggest and most significant challenges we have in the modern slavery response space. 200 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:33,110 We're looking at governance issues. That's typically the most one of the most universal issues, 201 00:20:33,110 --> 00:20:41,450 that if a government is unable to provide stability and care to its citizens, but often a lot of other protections are falling short. 202 00:20:41,450 --> 00:20:47,480 If there's a lack of basic needs, that is also another indicator that a population is vulnerable to modern slavery. 203 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:53,750 There's inequality. Disenfranchised groups and, of course, effects of conflict. The thing to remember is that this is a global vulnerability model. 204 00:20:53,750 --> 00:20:58,410 So this isn't tailored to regions or even one given country. 205 00:20:58,410 --> 00:21:06,480 And for example, so in Venezuela, of course, the governance issues are a pervasive challenge that have led to a lot of these other things. 206 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:11,680 So there's a there's a really interesting way that we think and talk about vulnerability 207 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:17,320 that that leads us to really interesting opportunities for measurement as well. 208 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,720 We are also looking this year at regional vulnerability models. 209 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:24,700 So creating models that are independent of the ones we use for these global estimates 210 00:21:24,700 --> 00:21:29,020 and allowing for more variability and more unique data sources for each global region. 211 00:21:29,020 --> 00:21:35,040 So keep an eye out for that. We're really quite excited. And then, of course, this how we estimate prevalence. 212 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:40,320 So we look at these individual and country level risk factors that we generate from the vulnerability models, 213 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:44,040 and we we build models that predict modern slavery on that basis. 214 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:52,200 Then we look at regional level estimates of modern slavery from our global estimate work, and we allocate that out by region. 215 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:59,270 And then again by country based on these risk profiles. And then I'll note again a government response. 216 00:21:59,270 --> 00:22:07,720 I really encourage you to cheque that out if you have any questions about any of these milestones and how they affect modern slavery. 217 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:13,330 But this isn't enough. It is not just research. It is actually about putting research into practise. 218 00:22:13,330 --> 00:22:22,690 Now, to that note, we have a really robust opportunity here to look at not just the global slavery index and our research there, 219 00:22:22,690 --> 00:22:29,560 but we also work with faith communities to it through the Global Freedom Network to get them to understand how 220 00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:34,420 they can play a really positive role in empowering their communities and protecting them from modern slavery. 221 00:22:34,420 --> 00:22:36,940 We also have the Bali Process Government and Business Forum, 222 00:22:36,940 --> 00:22:42,310 which actually works with major government and industry leaders throughout the Asia-Pacific region, 223 00:22:42,310 --> 00:22:51,100 including the United States and other major governments, where we attempt to understand how to bridge this divide between business and government 224 00:22:51,100 --> 00:22:55,420 to make sure that protections are in place on every stage of our supply chains. 225 00:22:55,420 --> 00:23:01,630 And then we, of course, have really strong relationships to the Freedom Fund, which some of you may know is based in London. 226 00:23:01,630 --> 00:23:10,590 And they do some excellent work in tritely interventions before they're brought to scale in the field. 227 00:23:10,590 --> 00:23:13,980 And of course, we're looking at some of these really interesting questions. 228 00:23:13,980 --> 00:23:18,600 So if any of you tune in for the International Women's Day event next week, 229 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:23,790 there will be some more discussion about the female respondents and victims that 230 00:23:23,790 --> 00:23:29,430 we've identified through this research and how this plays out in practise. 231 00:23:29,430 --> 00:23:37,730 And you can see that, generally speaking, this is how the distribution went for twenty eighteen. 232 00:23:37,730 --> 00:23:44,360 Another note on the Bali process. Government and Business Forum is that I've been really honoured to serve as one of the founding 233 00:23:44,360 --> 00:23:51,420 members and and longstanding members on a commission with the US Customs and Border Patrol. 234 00:23:51,420 --> 00:23:57,440 Something that you may not know is that the U.S. government has what we called withhold release orders, withhold release orders, 235 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:06,710 allow us to on the basis of scientific evidence and sufficient due diligence on their part to confirm what our research indicates, 236 00:24:06,710 --> 00:24:12,050 that they can actually prohibit the importation of goods made with forced and child labour. 237 00:24:12,050 --> 00:24:19,110 On that same list I mentioned before that that identified fishing products from distant water fishing fleets in China and Taiwan. 238 00:24:19,110 --> 00:24:26,600 They can actually prevent those those goods from entering the US government and allowing consumers 239 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:31,250 to unwittingly purchase them as an extension of what we do with business and government. 240 00:24:31,250 --> 00:24:34,100 This is a huge opportunity. 241 00:24:34,100 --> 00:24:41,240 So when we look at a lot of the goods that come from that same list that we work with that is published by the U.S. Department of Labour, 242 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:46,250 we're looking at cotton that is imported from Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and is Pakistan. 243 00:24:46,250 --> 00:24:48,830 We're looking at apparel from throughout the world. 244 00:24:48,830 --> 00:24:55,160 We're looking at gold from the Democratic Democratic Republic of the Congo, of course, North Korea, even Karroum. 245 00:24:55,160 --> 00:25:05,210 You've got fish from a lot of world industries. You've got timber, Brazil, Peru, also North Korea and electronics, laptops, computers, mobile phones. 246 00:25:05,210 --> 00:25:13,400 And what's really interesting, of course, is that we will then use this data driven process to have an immediate impact on policy. 247 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:18,950 But what's really interesting is that regardless of this amazing policy tool, 248 00:25:18,950 --> 00:25:25,910 there's still so many goods that are making it into the United States is one of the G20 countries we analyse. 249 00:25:25,910 --> 00:25:33,830 If you look at the 2018 Global Slavery Index, you'll find all of the G20 countries represented, including, of course, the United Kingdom. 250 00:25:33,830 --> 00:25:38,840 And you'll see how much of each of these goods are imported into our countries every year, 251 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:50,540 effectively giving our our fellow citizens an opportunity to be a part of these supply chains without without realising it. 252 00:25:50,540 --> 00:25:57,950 Something else I'd like to mention is our assessment of how we're doing in terms of achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals, 253 00:25:57,950 --> 00:26:03,510 especially as it relates to Target eight point seven, which is modern slavery. 254 00:26:03,510 --> 00:26:10,530 The sad reality is that we were not doing very well. Fundamentally, there are so many gaps in identification legislation, 255 00:26:10,530 --> 00:26:18,840 support services and business engagement that we will need to recoup so much of this work in order to meet our benchmarks. 256 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,770 Additionally, of course, that's only been made worse with the contacts with Koban 19. 257 00:26:22,770 --> 00:26:34,810 That has set us back quite significantly in terms of our research, in terms of our research efforts and abilities to to combat that crime. 258 00:26:34,810 --> 00:26:40,870 And of course, that brings us to the end of this part of the presentation. 259 00:26:40,870 --> 00:26:50,480 I think at this point, Crystal will be able to take questions. 260 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:58,050 Indeed, Bernard, did you want to make a point about forced marriage? 261 00:26:58,050 --> 00:27:02,300 Put a line in there making this campaign how it's dealt with in the U.K. 262 00:27:02,300 --> 00:27:11,570 So it's that it's interesting that it's an engine statistical question because in this country, 263 00:27:11,570 --> 00:27:17,480 we don't count forced marriage as parts of modern slavery, the modern slavery. 264 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:24,420 So I should tell my camera on this route. It's the Modern Slavery Act. 265 00:27:24,420 --> 00:27:29,210 It was brought to you after the forced marriage of the Modern Slavery Act has very, 266 00:27:29,210 --> 00:27:36,380 very draconian potential penalties up to life imprisonment, forced marriage, not quite so far. 267 00:27:36,380 --> 00:27:40,640 But we we are not coming what is right or wrong. 268 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:51,710 But we consider these as two separate things. So if you attempt to quantify the number of victims, you'd have to put look at both buckets separately. 269 00:27:51,710 --> 00:28:00,800 If you were working in this country, hung up. So I would say is the definition of forced marriage. 270 00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:04,400 In some countries, it's not quite the same. 271 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:14,120 It's not the same as arranged marriage. It's because of an arranged marriage where each partner is free to enter into the marriage or not. 272 00:28:14,120 --> 00:28:18,620 It's not a forced march. It may not be the way. It may not be culturally. 273 00:28:18,620 --> 00:28:24,200 What we do. But it's in many parts of the world. It's entirely normal and it's what goes on. 274 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:29,720 And that's just not the same. But on the other hand, of the range marriage, where one of the where the bride usually is. 275 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:37,460 It's like twelve. That would be a forced march because they can't give consent that they think they are not legally able to give consent. 276 00:28:37,460 --> 00:28:40,070 So therefore, she is by definition of forced marriage. 277 00:28:40,070 --> 00:28:47,750 It's a whole separate issue, but it's quite interesting statistically because it shows how definitional issues make it often very, 278 00:28:47,750 --> 00:28:52,910 very difficult to make international comparisons. 279 00:28:52,910 --> 00:29:00,230 I'd also say that even the phrase modern slavery into being, you know, this, but other people present marriage in the United States. 280 00:29:00,230 --> 00:29:09,170 It's not really used on. The reason is because of the enormous, enormous consciousness of chattel slavery, 281 00:29:09,170 --> 00:29:19,580 of the kinds of slaves supposedly abolished in the 19th century and not the Dutch, the situation where you can legally own another person. 282 00:29:19,580 --> 00:29:26,510 No, modern slavery is not about legally owning other people. It's just about coercing them, keeping under control and so on. 283 00:29:26,510 --> 00:29:34,820 So most slaves who were legally owned were in conditions that we would regard as those in modern slavery. 284 00:29:34,820 --> 00:29:36,710 But if they are not the same thing. 285 00:29:36,710 --> 00:29:44,060 But to avoid the confusion in the United States, they talk about human trafficking, which is sort of the same thing. 286 00:29:44,060 --> 00:29:47,900 Not exactly. So it's another definitional issue. Yeah. Thank you. 287 00:29:47,900 --> 00:29:52,580 Thank you, sir. Solomon. You're absolutely right. So you raised a few really great points. 288 00:29:52,580 --> 00:29:58,130 I'd love to stand out. And so the first part, modern slavery is the definition. Of course, our work is global in scope. 289 00:29:58,130 --> 00:30:02,690 So that does mean a lot of things about how individual countries legislate and count. 290 00:30:02,690 --> 00:30:10,370 Modern slavery themselves. And also how we have to do our measurements so that it's it's comparable country to country. 291 00:30:10,370 --> 00:30:12,050 So you're absolutely right. 292 00:30:12,050 --> 00:30:21,020 There is a meaningful distinction and a deliberate distinction, often between forced marriage and modern slavery and legislation and other points. 293 00:30:21,020 --> 00:30:25,910 And that's actually why I'm interested in from a policy point, why when we published our global estimates, 294 00:30:25,910 --> 00:30:33,650 we did publish the sub estimates of the twenty four point nine forced labour number and then the fifteen point four forced marriage number. 295 00:30:33,650 --> 00:30:37,400 And that was specifically for exactly as you mentioned, that to separate that out. 296 00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:41,210 I will also note that, as is often the case and I know you know this. 297 00:30:41,210 --> 00:30:48,380 Sarah Silverman, that the reality is we are typically undercounting a lot of our our crime. 298 00:30:48,380 --> 00:30:52,310 I mean, it is incredibly the standard by which we define modern slavery. 299 00:30:52,310 --> 00:31:00,680 Even forced marriage is exceedingly high. So exactly what you've described, Bernard, when you talk about child child marriage, 300 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:08,150 we are talking often about prepubescent children that are very clear violations of what a marriage arrangement should be. 301 00:31:08,150 --> 00:31:16,600 Additionally, you're absolutely right. Arranged marriages are separate from forced marriage, assuming that the children. 302 00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:20,690 Sorry. Assuming that both parties are adults and able to consent. 303 00:31:20,690 --> 00:31:25,310 So that has been a really interesting, really interesting component of this research. 304 00:31:25,310 --> 00:31:30,830 So we are also looking at commissioning some forced marriage services is specifically addressing this. 305 00:31:30,830 --> 00:31:34,850 And it's been really compelling because often the countries where we want to measure this, 306 00:31:34,850 --> 00:31:39,140 there is already a historical and cultural legacy of arranged marriages. 307 00:31:39,140 --> 00:31:45,500 And even from my perspective as someone of Indian descent, I think this is really compelling because we start talking about bridal payments 308 00:31:45,500 --> 00:31:50,510 and dowries and things that are commercial exchanges in the process of marriage. 309 00:31:50,510 --> 00:31:54,860 The other thing I'd like to say on that topic is that it's I've thought about this for a very long time. 310 00:31:54,860 --> 00:31:57,890 And one of the difficult things for me is that. 311 00:31:57,890 --> 00:32:05,570 Understanding the level of agency that any women in these societies can yield and they may not have been able to make any educational personal 312 00:32:05,570 --> 00:32:12,890 choices in their life up until that point is very difficult to to understand and especially for respondents to articulate on their own behalf. 313 00:32:12,890 --> 00:32:21,860 So what will be really interesting in the future is these broader strategic interventions and goals around increasing women's equality, 314 00:32:21,860 --> 00:32:29,630 women's empowerment in these spaces, and then being able to fully understand the context in which arranged versus forced marriages might be occurring. 315 00:32:29,630 --> 00:32:34,490 And also a note on the historical slavery piece, because it's so interesting in the U.S. context right now. 316 00:32:34,490 --> 00:32:40,160 But Bernard is absolutely right. This has been especially in the context of the Black Black Lives Matter movement. 317 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:49,190 It's been a very interesting example. It's been an interesting example of how people are addressing this issue and how they view it. 318 00:32:49,190 --> 00:32:56,450 So Bernard is absolutely right. We have a historical legacy in the United States and honestly globally of legal 319 00:32:56,450 --> 00:33:01,430 slavery that is the the public institution of slavery where it's permitted by law. 320 00:33:01,430 --> 00:33:06,740 And, of course, that was even only just ended in Mauritania and then in the 90s. 321 00:33:06,740 --> 00:33:10,370 So that was not even all that long ago in some contexts. And of course, 322 00:33:10,370 --> 00:33:15,650 modern slavery research and surveys in those countries indicate higher rates of modern slavery because it does 323 00:33:15,650 --> 00:33:22,010 take a long time for those social norms to catch up those to the legal the legal standards that are being set. 324 00:33:22,010 --> 00:33:25,520 What's interesting about how we define modern slavery, however, 325 00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:32,060 is that regardless of the national contexts, we do try to identify these common these common trends. 326 00:33:32,060 --> 00:33:39,110 These force fraud, coercion. And like these these methods that are comparable, regardless of how someone is themselves, may define the situation. 327 00:33:39,110 --> 00:33:45,830 And so it's often very interesting that we're not typically asking someone if they themselves are a modern slave or a victim. 328 00:33:45,830 --> 00:33:53,700 We're asking them about the conditions under which they work and live. And then based on those answers, then determine a bit more about the situation. 329 00:33:53,700 --> 00:33:56,070 But, yeah, thank you for that. This are very interesting points for. 330 00:33:56,070 --> 00:34:03,500 Please tell me also, of course, the victims of forced marriage and the victims of forced labour. 331 00:34:03,500 --> 00:34:08,140 It is entirely possible to be both. So actually, there's some overlap as well. 332 00:34:08,140 --> 00:34:15,860 So what you say is absolutely true, and that's an interesting question about how broadly you should define things, 333 00:34:15,860 --> 00:34:20,840 because there's of these things are a bit of a grey area. 334 00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:26,960 In other words, it's just never quite clear where the line is, because in a way, none of what we do is, 335 00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:33,500 you know, how much when does when does when the social pressure turned into coercion. 336 00:34:33,500 --> 00:34:40,580 Right. That's exactly right. It's quite difficult to say. And it is essential to submit a global treaty. 337 00:34:40,580 --> 00:34:48,400 And so should you focus on the worst the most egregious cases or should you cast in that light? 338 00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:56,660 And there are actually arguments, both of those points, I would say, about a bit of good background for people who may not know. 339 00:34:56,660 --> 00:35:04,040 Of course, nothing in the Modern Slavery Act was legal before the Modern Slavery Act was the first out in the world. 340 00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:12,190 We were the first country, the world that did this was to bring together the various different forms of exploitation, 341 00:35:12,190 --> 00:35:19,360 not being, you know, you name it and put them into a single into a single serious thing. 342 00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:24,140 And it just had an amazing effect on the public consciousness. 343 00:35:24,140 --> 00:35:28,480 The world, while people used to say, well, this sort of thing goes on, isn't a terrible no. 344 00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:37,430 It is genuinely something right across the political divide. People actually realise it's not and we need to do something about it. 345 00:35:37,430 --> 00:35:47,330 So at least we become aware and at least we have some will to do to the pandemic will not have helped the world. 346 00:35:47,330 --> 00:35:57,550 I think got actually my my reason for talking on and on is to give other people a chance to form a question so I can not tell from this incident. 347 00:35:57,550 --> 00:36:04,580 Thank you. OK. Yes. Great that we have accumulated some questions in the meantime. 348 00:36:04,580 --> 00:36:10,640 So I will. So one of our postgrads that asked about. 349 00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:17,120 Can you give us some examples of survey questions that asked are the respondents victims themselves? 350 00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:22,370 And if so, how do you ascertain those populations? How do you find them to ask these questions? 351 00:36:22,370 --> 00:36:25,900 Yes, absolutely. Thank you so much for that question, Brian. That's a great one. 352 00:36:25,900 --> 00:36:31,070 So the kinds of questions we ask are typically around the labour situation and 353 00:36:31,070 --> 00:36:36,380 actually our survey tools available on our Web site at Global Slavery Index dot org. 354 00:36:36,380 --> 00:36:38,600 If anyone's interested in looking at it. 355 00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:49,460 But what we do ask fundamentally is we define forced labour as situations that you cannot that you are not able to leave through whatever means. 356 00:36:49,460 --> 00:36:52,820 And there are few levels of indicators that someone can say. 357 00:36:52,820 --> 00:36:57,480 These are the reasons I didn't leave, that I was physically detained, that there were threats of. 358 00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:02,010 Harm that I was my documents were taken away. 359 00:37:02,010 --> 00:37:04,560 The various conditions that have come through. 360 00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:09,870 What are most consistently cited in lots of national legislations around modern slavery are typically a lot 361 00:37:09,870 --> 00:37:14,730 of the things that have informed the International Labour Organisation standards on how we constitute force, 362 00:37:14,730 --> 00:37:20,100 fraud and coercion often. We will find respondents that are victims themselves. 363 00:37:20,100 --> 00:37:25,320 And there are ethical review protocols that go into place, referral services that need to be made available. 364 00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:31,590 But what's really interesting is sometimes people will be in a very extreme situation of labour exploitation, 365 00:37:31,590 --> 00:37:36,840 but have not yet conceived of themselves as as someone who's in a situation of modern slavery. 366 00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:38,760 And that's always a very difficult thing to navigate. 367 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:46,420 Which is why we often use that forced labour terminology and we use the conditions around the work to really guide the questionnaire. 368 00:37:46,420 --> 00:37:51,690 It's really about what are the conditions of work? What has this happened to anyone in your close family network, 369 00:37:51,690 --> 00:37:56,880 which is also how we get at self and proxy responses to help make those two thousand 370 00:37:56,880 --> 00:38:01,800 samples of respondent samples and even large countries kind of stretch a bit more. 371 00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:09,270 And of course, they're weighted differently, but it is still absolutely an opportunity for people that are in those situations to respond. 372 00:38:09,270 --> 00:38:09,930 And and actually, 373 00:38:09,930 --> 00:38:18,550 a good example would be a lot of South Asian men who have historically worked in the Gulf face very exploitative situations once they're there, 374 00:38:18,550 --> 00:38:22,320 often meeting a lot of the conditions that we would need for a modern slavery. 375 00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,650 But because it's generational harm, it's something that their parents have done, 376 00:38:25,650 --> 00:38:31,020 their brothers, their uncles, everyone they know is subject to that type of labour standard. 377 00:38:31,020 --> 00:38:36,190 It's often not something that they would they themselves would consider an egregious form of abuse. 378 00:38:36,190 --> 00:38:40,890 So it's just a really interesting thing how these these conceptions of work standards, 379 00:38:40,890 --> 00:38:44,430 labour exploitation standards, are gendered and and sometimes internalised, 380 00:38:44,430 --> 00:38:52,200 especially when we're talking about survey research that is focussing on on respondents providing their own account, 381 00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:57,840 which is also, I think, to Bernhard's point about the grey area and how how you make that determination. 382 00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:01,050 I would say we ere on the side of the more grievous forms. 383 00:39:01,050 --> 00:39:07,560 But again, based on how we describe these situations, it's up to the respondent to determine if their situation fits or does not fit. 384 00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:15,330 And that's fundamentally, I think, what would be guiding a lot of the survey, research driven work. 385 00:39:15,330 --> 00:39:19,200 So there is another question specifically about North Korea. 386 00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:24,030 Could you talk a bit more about your research that you mentioned on North Korea and how the testimony of 387 00:39:24,030 --> 00:39:30,510 someone from North Korea was used to help your analysis when presumably you don't have access to very many. 388 00:39:30,510 --> 00:39:33,760 Survey respondents? Not much data. Yes. Thank you. 389 00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:34,920 Kim, that's a great question. 390 00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:44,760 So North Korea, as with all state imposed forced labour examples, are very difficult to get complicit or permissions to work in those contexts. 391 00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:49,770 It's a lot of safety issues. And, of course, we need to substantiate all of these claims. 392 00:39:49,770 --> 00:39:56,670 So there's some really innovative work being done in terms of satellite imagery and identifying where a lot of work camps may be. 393 00:39:56,670 --> 00:40:03,480 There's also a lot of really valuable defector information. And if you also look at our Global Slavery Index that our Web site, 394 00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:08,640 we actually have a standalone report that we undertook in partnership with Leiden University, 395 00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:14,880 where there is a massive amount of North Korean defector research fundamentally sharing their perspectives. 396 00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:21,180 We talked about recency and how those how that was going. And fundamentally informing a lot of that work. 397 00:40:21,180 --> 00:40:28,080 I would say that we are really committed to bringing a light to a lot of those types of situations because, of course, 398 00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:36,360 state imposed forced labour is a bit of a different beast than every country in the world that has some form of modern slavery. 399 00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:41,760 State imposed forced labour means that the very entity that has the most potential to enact positive change, 400 00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:45,930 to prevent this, to stop this crime, to intervene is actually complicit. 401 00:40:45,930 --> 00:40:50,130 And so for us, that's a huge obligation to address this internationally. 402 00:40:50,130 --> 00:40:56,160 Also, our partners at the International Labour Organisation and others at the U.N. have been monitoring that situation for a very long time. 403 00:40:56,160 --> 00:41:00,570 And so luckily, that partnership yielded a lot of really valuable data. 404 00:41:00,570 --> 00:41:06,780 And of course, that's also why we published the report from that we jointly undertook with Leiden University on the defector research, 405 00:41:06,780 --> 00:41:13,470 because that really important qualitative data, it really supports a lot of this other work that we're doing. 406 00:41:13,470 --> 00:41:21,100 So thank you for that. It's incredibly difficult context to operate in, but so very important to to try addressing. 407 00:41:21,100 --> 00:41:28,390 So another question. Can you explain why your sample of 48 countries, which have no rich Western representation rockets, 408 00:41:28,390 --> 00:41:34,450 most of EU, USA, Canada, Australia had no representation from the Middle East? 409 00:41:34,450 --> 00:41:38,470 How do you know your model applies to Western countries? Yes. 410 00:41:38,470 --> 00:41:43,510 Thank you, Brian. So this is actually a really great a really great question. 411 00:41:43,510 --> 00:41:46,750 Survey research is best suited to developing countries. 412 00:41:46,750 --> 00:41:51,760 And the reason is because in most developed countries, rule of law is generally quite a bit stronger. 413 00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:59,620 And so a two thousand person survey will often not yield enough respondents or proxy reports of situations of modern slavery. 414 00:41:59,620 --> 00:42:02,980 Additionally, we work with Gallup World Poll, and because of that, 415 00:42:02,980 --> 00:42:09,130 they actually commission in developed countries like the Western countries you mentioned there and Australasia. 416 00:42:09,130 --> 00:42:16,840 They commission all of their work on phone surveys. Much of that work and phone surveys instead of face to face surveys for us for a topic like this, 417 00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:24,010 especially given the potential cognitive dissonance with what we're describing and respondents identifying this in their own situations. 418 00:42:24,010 --> 00:42:27,010 We, of course, prefer face to face surveys, which is something that, of course, 419 00:42:27,010 --> 00:42:33,760 we're investigating even more now in this coded environment and seeing what the differences really are there. 420 00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:40,600 Now, to get around this, because we do know that this is a significant limitation of the survey research. 421 00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:44,290 We have undertaken multiple systems estimation in developed countries. 422 00:42:44,290 --> 00:42:51,460 So Sir Bernard Silverman led the very first application of multiple systems estimation, which is effectively capture, 423 00:42:51,460 --> 00:43:00,790 recapture across three or more administrative lists of victim data where the victims themselves are identifiably unique. 424 00:43:00,790 --> 00:43:06,700 And so we can understand that a victim A appears on a law enforcement list and a immigration list, 425 00:43:06,700 --> 00:43:10,420 but not a social services list that perhaps we can estimate the SCC, 426 00:43:10,420 --> 00:43:13,600 the universe of victims, that we're missing the missing population, 427 00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:21,490 the stark figure since Bernard and our friend Kevin Bales and Alice Olivia Hesketh have done this. 428 00:43:21,490 --> 00:43:24,580 We've actually been able to take the method further. 429 00:43:24,580 --> 00:43:31,190 We've applied this in Ireland, the Netherlands, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and a few other countries. 430 00:43:31,190 --> 00:43:38,140 It requires quite a bit of really quite a bit of collaboration with the national government. 431 00:43:38,140 --> 00:43:44,260 They have to kind of trust the method, trust us, and have enough data capacity to even collect the data in a meaningful way. 432 00:43:44,260 --> 00:43:52,480 Australia has also released a multiple systems estimate, national prevalence estimate, and the United States has done this in various states. 433 00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:57,370 And I'm working with federal government to see if we can do something nationally as well. 434 00:43:57,370 --> 00:44:01,630 One of the interesting things about multiple systems estimation, though, is that, of course, 435 00:44:01,630 --> 00:44:05,680 our reliance on government health data means that there are some significant challenges, 436 00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:10,240 that there are sparsity issues that often there's not a lot of overlap between some lists. 437 00:44:10,240 --> 00:44:18,940 And of course, that's a necessary component for estimation procedures. And so there's actually a special edition in crime and delinquency coming out. 438 00:44:18,940 --> 00:44:24,730 This basically in the next couple of months that really highlights all of the advantages and disadvantages 439 00:44:24,730 --> 00:44:31,000 that we've made to date in terms of how all the all the challenges are encountered in that method. 440 00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:34,240 All those strengths and then also some of the ways that we've overcome it. 441 00:44:34,240 --> 00:44:41,390 Additionally, we've also had several of the leading scientists applying multiple systems estimation in modern slavery. 442 00:44:41,390 --> 00:44:49,540 Right. Even a response to a public journal reflecting on a lot of the misconceptions and even other academics 443 00:44:49,540 --> 00:44:54,100 in terms of how this method has been applied and how it how it really should be applied and used. 444 00:44:54,100 --> 00:45:03,580 And so it's a great lesson for all of us as statisticians and programmers out there that we can provide the packages, we can provide the publications. 445 00:45:03,580 --> 00:45:10,270 But often the application requires so many unspoken assumptions and so much skill that having this open dialogue for 446 00:45:10,270 --> 00:45:16,330 researchers is really important because an initial article that misunderstood the application of this work could 447 00:45:16,330 --> 00:45:22,240 have been corrected if they had just reached out to the original authors rather than kind of making all these really 448 00:45:22,240 --> 00:45:27,700 egregious errors and then embarrassingly having to be addressed in the public forum in which they were published. 449 00:45:27,700 --> 00:45:29,920 So it's it's an interesting question. 450 00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:39,600 I think as well just how we conduct ourselves as academics and how we really have collegial and collaborative responses. 451 00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:47,090 Right. And so there was a question about you alluded to it briefly about the impact of covered on modern slavery. 452 00:45:47,090 --> 00:45:54,310 And so can you comment on how research can address this and can actually quantify what the impacts are? 453 00:45:54,310 --> 00:46:01,090 Yes. Thank you. Press on. Thank you. Jumpier. That's a really you know, it's a really pressing question that's been on all of our minds. 454 00:46:01,090 --> 00:46:07,150 So Cauvin is impacted, all of us in very many ways. But in the modern slavery research field, these ways have been manifold. 455 00:46:07,150 --> 00:46:14,110 So one of those is about survey and research delivery. We still have an ongoing and very robust survey research programme that will now be 456 00:46:14,110 --> 00:46:19,330 delivered in some in some phases by telephone and in some phases in Face-To-Face contexts. 457 00:46:19,330 --> 00:46:22,960 So what will be really interesting from a methodological perspective this year, 458 00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:29,560 we'll be comparing those methods and determining how that impact has been driven by Kovin. 459 00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:35,740 Additionally, we published a report called Stacked Odds this Year that looked at pervasive issues 460 00:46:35,740 --> 00:46:39,490 in gender inequality and how that contributed to modern slavery risk for women. 461 00:46:39,490 --> 00:46:46,060 And I'll actually be talking about that in an International Women's Day event coming up soon. 462 00:46:46,060 --> 00:46:54,640 But what's really interesting is that was a tremendous experience in fielding research with frontline responders throughout the Koban epidemic. 463 00:46:54,640 --> 00:47:00,670 That meant that NGOs and frontline organisations with whom we rely on to collect data and to report on 464 00:47:00,670 --> 00:47:07,550 situations were already overwhelmed and facing more funding restrictions than they even normally would have. 465 00:47:07,550 --> 00:47:17,230 They. We also know from some of our research on the Columbia Venezuelan border that Cauvin has meant that there is less law enforcement intervention. 466 00:47:17,230 --> 00:47:22,840 There's a lot less ability for children and others to be identified. 467 00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:27,760 In fact, some of our colleagues doing research in Kenya have actually found that because of covered restrictions, 468 00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:38,620 commercial sexual tourism of children has now been shifted into the existing robust infrastructure that that was there for for online pornography. 469 00:47:38,620 --> 00:47:44,680 And so now those children who previously could have been identified through interventions by law enforcement on the streets and identified more 470 00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:55,600 clearly are much more difficult to find post coalbed because they'll be basically being harmed and and filmed and exploited in private settings. 471 00:47:55,600 --> 00:48:02,670 So it's a very interesting way to see how it is impacted modern slavery in the international museum. 472 00:48:02,670 --> 00:48:06,820 And also I'll be talking about a report we published during this period called Protecting People in a Pandemic. 473 00:48:06,820 --> 00:48:15,070 So without covering too much the same content. One of the things that has had an impact are the levels of protection on our most vulnerable 474 00:48:15,070 --> 00:48:22,150 workers globally have tremendously declined their access to health care protective equipment. 475 00:48:22,150 --> 00:48:26,140 Even now, vaccines has been politicised and really limited. 476 00:48:26,140 --> 00:48:30,070 And so it is going to be there's going to be a tremendous impact. 477 00:48:30,070 --> 00:48:34,480 Also, a lot of the Cauvin restrictions have meant that children around the world who 478 00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:38,650 are already incredibly vulnerable were not able to physically go to school. 479 00:48:38,650 --> 00:48:43,810 And so now you're going to see a lot of an earlier entrance into child labour, forced marriages. 480 00:48:43,810 --> 00:48:50,310 I mean, we we anticipate this having a tremendous effect. OK, thank you very much. 481 00:48:50,310 --> 00:48:57,980 So I had a question which I thought it was going back a bit because, as you mentioned, of forced marriage. 482 00:48:57,980 --> 00:49:01,700 Because we want to be particularly careful about not having a sort of colonial 483 00:49:01,700 --> 00:49:07,190 attitude and taking what we see as our standards and putting them on someone else. 484 00:49:07,190 --> 00:49:13,940 I mean, how do you decide what what is a sufficient age to consent to a marriage? 485 00:49:13,940 --> 00:49:19,160 Because presumably that's different legally in in different countries. 486 00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:25,640 Yes. How do you decide when someone is old enough to make that decision? 487 00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:32,960 Yeah. Thanks, Christiane. This is, again, one of the richest areas for discussion in terms of how we make these types of determinations. 488 00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:38,130 There's actually no age limit necessarily in terms of how this is done. 489 00:49:38,130 --> 00:49:44,390 And remember, because a lot of it's by survey research. So it really comes down to the respondent themselves determining if they were or were not 490 00:49:44,390 --> 00:49:48,230 in a forced marriage based on how based on the factors that might contribute to that. 491 00:49:48,230 --> 00:49:52,010 Did you willingly agree to your marriage? Were you willing? Were you able to leave that marriage? 492 00:49:52,010 --> 00:49:57,560 Was it was it something you chose? We wouldn't impose an age limit externally necessarily. 493 00:49:57,560 --> 00:50:02,510 But I would say that given the cultural context globally, 494 00:50:02,510 --> 00:50:09,110 often people who may otherwise have been considered in a forced marriage where they they did not consent, they did not want to participate. 495 00:50:09,110 --> 00:50:14,090 They may still be less willing to self identify as someone who has been in that situation because it's 496 00:50:14,090 --> 00:50:20,450 so culturally pervasive that there is less choice in agency in deciding those those those standards. 497 00:50:20,450 --> 00:50:21,560 And I think in general, 498 00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:30,170 also our survey research has a severe limit and that we are unable to interview anyone younger than 15 years of age for child protection reasons. 499 00:50:30,170 --> 00:50:34,580 So typically, most of the survey respondents were speaking to our people, 15 and older, 500 00:50:34,580 --> 00:50:39,200 who are responding about these experiences either in their lives or their immediate family network. 501 00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:43,580 So it does come down to kind of the interpretation of the survey tool and how 502 00:50:43,580 --> 00:50:46,820 whether or not someone could willingly or unwillingly enter that marriage. 503 00:50:46,820 --> 00:50:52,340 But it's less about us putting those kinds of hard kind of parameters around it. 504 00:50:52,340 --> 00:50:58,400 And rather that decision being being guided by the respondents themselves and their interpretation of the tool, 505 00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:00,740 which, of course, our survey tools go through cognitive testing. 506 00:51:00,740 --> 00:51:08,510 We do really try to make sure that the right concepts are coming across as we intend them to be and as inclusive as they can be. 507 00:51:08,510 --> 00:51:15,440 The other thing about this is this is an interesting point about implicit colonialism in research in terms of human rights standards. 508 00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:22,580 So how do we make sure that what we are advocating for is sensitive to cultural variation? 509 00:51:22,580 --> 00:51:29,300 And this is where the challenge really becomes. As we mentioned earlier about women having agency in their lives in general. 510 00:51:29,300 --> 00:51:36,230 So it becomes really difficult to assume or to understand that a respondent is free, 511 00:51:36,230 --> 00:51:42,860 is truly free to make a lot of decisions when that hasn't been the legacy or the cultural experience that they may have in that country otherwise. 512 00:51:42,860 --> 00:51:50,870 So I'm really excited that our research specifically on women's and equality is going to lead to interventions that are broader than modern slavery, 513 00:51:50,870 --> 00:51:57,350 interventions that are meant that providing more empowerment opportunities in whatever whatever context that means, 514 00:51:57,350 --> 00:52:03,860 it better educational opportunities, if that's whatever choices can, can then be made by the people themselves. 515 00:52:03,860 --> 00:52:13,050 And it'll be interesting to see if any of these things have an impact on how the agency in choosing marriage partners is defined in the coming years. 516 00:52:13,050 --> 00:52:19,520 My story, my truck on the front. We are one of the youngest countries in Europe. 517 00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:24,410 In the UK, you can get married at 16 with parental consent on that. 518 00:52:24,410 --> 00:52:28,790 It's actually not the case in most European countries and most comfortably. 519 00:52:28,790 --> 00:52:34,670 And UNICEF thinks 18 should be the age of consent to marriage on their own. 520 00:52:34,670 --> 00:52:43,610 Many countries with marriage age under 16 states have some states that allow for 14 with parental consent. 521 00:52:43,610 --> 00:52:56,580 That's really quite unusual. And so the international United Nations standard is 18 and most countries choose 18, 16. 522 00:52:56,580 --> 00:53:00,120 I'm very unusual here. I knew, you know, with parental consent. 523 00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:04,280 All that means, of course, that can be whites' fools. 524 00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:14,240 So I think there's a general in fact, I think it's generally accepted that the age of 16 to 18 is the youngest. 525 00:53:14,240 --> 00:53:20,120 Really? I mean, they're all places which younger, but not many. So there's a general rule tools. 526 00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:28,520 Of course, many marriages are not legally many in many cultures to be thrown out. 527 00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:33,370 Many what we call marriage is unnecessary necessarily legally marriages. 528 00:53:33,370 --> 00:53:37,720 But they are in every other respect, marriage. And actually, there are two interesting points on that. 529 00:53:37,720 --> 00:53:45,130 So the first is also that I should have mentioned that if if our estimate was one of child marriage, that number would be extraordinarily long. 530 00:53:45,130 --> 00:53:48,170 Like, exponentially larger. So the number that we report for. 531 00:53:48,170 --> 00:53:55,100 Marriage is meant to be the most egregious form of lack of ability to choose, lack of ability to leave. 532 00:53:55,100 --> 00:54:02,780 Child marriages, however, are far more frequent and are reported pretty, pretty consistently throughout, especially the Southeast Asian region. 533 00:54:02,780 --> 00:54:13,480 But the other component on the issue about how how we conceptualise this in the context of our research is that there is. 534 00:54:13,480 --> 00:54:21,330 There's quite a lot of interesting work in terms of like dual legal systems or what we would might call like tribal law versus like formal law. 535 00:54:21,330 --> 00:54:25,120 So our colleagues at the International Association of Women Judges actually have a really 536 00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:30,520 interesting example in Morocco where they were taking legal efforts to prevent child marriages. 537 00:54:30,520 --> 00:54:33,460 So what would happen is they would increase the legal age of marriage. 538 00:54:33,460 --> 00:54:39,970 But then these communities would have tribal marriages or religious ceremonies where older 539 00:54:39,970 --> 00:54:44,920 men could marry prepubescent or younger girls like far beyond the limits of the legislation. 540 00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:50,500 And then they would once the the the child or the child was pregnant, 541 00:54:50,500 --> 00:55:00,130 the child would then come before a more formal court and judge and say, if you do not authorise this marriage now, 542 00:55:00,130 --> 00:55:06,400 then I'm going to be forced this child is going to be forced to raise this this child without the protection of a family name, 543 00:55:06,400 --> 00:55:13,960 without all of these things. So these dual legal systems have also contributed quite a lot as as Bernard mentions, like these, 544 00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:22,420 these informal systems have then been really abused to the to the chagrin of these advocates trying to end this in their own countries. 545 00:55:22,420 --> 00:55:29,480 It's such a fascinating component, though, because it really does suggest that it has to be a broader societal shift in every country, 546 00:55:29,480 --> 00:55:38,180 that women's and women's inequality can be addressed and have such a powerful ripple on effect. 547 00:55:38,180 --> 00:55:45,000 Well, we're coming to the end of our hour. It's been incredibly interesting for those in the university. 548 00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:48,720 It is the event for International Women's Day. 549 00:55:48,720 --> 00:55:54,840 International Women's Day is on the 8th of March. And there'll be lots of things going on all over the place. 550 00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:59,430 But one of them is in our MPLX less division. 551 00:55:59,430 --> 00:56:06,780 And that will be a joint event between Statistics, Computer Science and Mathematics Institute. 552 00:56:06,780 --> 00:56:13,800 And Divinia will be one of the keynote speakers there. So that should be really interesting. 553 00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:23,070 And it's advertised throughout the university. So you can sign up there. And so we'll see many of you then if you would like to join me. 554 00:56:23,070 --> 00:56:30,480 You can turn yourself off mute. And let's give a round of applause to Davina to thank her for the talk today. 555 00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:33,254 Thank you.